Erik E.

Deep in an underground production facility, far away from prying eyes, President Yao Jintao stood and watched—row after row of machines busily working to build other machines that would fight and destroy their enemies. Killers were creating killers for as far as he could see. President Yao sensed they’d crossed a line. South Korean and American soldiers stared down their Chinese counterparts along the Yalu River, just like they had 75 years before. With winter on the way and both armies dug in, who might make the first move? Nobody was prepared for what came next.

The Sino-American contest is driven by clashing geopolitical interests and a stark ideological dispute over whether authoritarianism or democracy will dominate the twenty-first century. But both history and China's current trajectory suggest that this rivalry will reach its moment of maximum danger in the 2020s. The Chinese challenge will most likely prove more manageable than many pessimists currently believe—but during the 2020s, the pace of Sino-American conflict will accelerate, and the prospect of war will be frighteningly real.