Thomas Coleman, an economics professor at the University of Chicago, discusses a novel theory of money and inflation, inequality, and risk management with the CFA Institute Research Foundation’s Larry Siegel.

The “money” referred to in monetary economics is a thing of the past, says Tom, because nobody has any “money” (cash, checking accounts, savings accounts). They have marketable assets instead. So monetarism is outdated as a theory of inflation. Instead, Tom argues inflation is better explained by the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level (FTPL), which relates the price level to the value of government-issued securities (bonds and cash) as determined by the cash flows backing them. These cash flows are taxes minus government spending.

The FTPL explains the low inflation of 2008 and high inflation of 2022 better than any other theory.

Coleman also discusses inequality. While conventional measures of inequality look at taxable incomes, he takes a broader view, including transfer payments and other items not reported on tax returns as income. When you do this, inequality – while still worse than in the 1980s – is less severe than it appears. In fact, households in the bottom half of the income distribution face a tax rate that is negative!

Tom concludes with thoughts on risk, a topic on which he has written two excellent books.

In this second episode segment, Larry Speidell, founder and CIO of Frontier Global Partners focuses on personal stories, travel experiences, and deeper insights into frontier markets.

For example, Speidell praises Botswana’s development, aided by diamond discoveries, but also discusses the “resource curse,” where reliance on natural resources can hinder broader economic growth.

Speidell’s firm does not shy away from politically unstable countries such as Peru and Georgia. In such environments, he says, strong companies can thrive, and investors must be patient.

Larry describes the transformative impact of mobile technology in frontier markets, such as Kenya’s M-PESA, a banking app that greatly helps the previously “unbanked” to make a living.

The episode blends investment insights with cultural reflections, emphasizing patience, optimism, and the human side of global investing.

In this two-part episode, Lawrence Speidell, founder and CIO of Frontier Global Partners, discusses his Indiana Jones-like foray into frontier markets in search of stocks to buy for his firm’s clients. Frontier markets are countries that are less developed than those in emerging market indexes.

Larry’s interest in frontier markets began during a lecture trip to China in the 1980s.
Frontier markets include Vietnam, Bangladesh, Romania, Colombia, and many countries in Africa. Speidell argues that, despite political instability, such markets are not necessarily riskier than developed ones, which have also seen increasing volatility. Frontier markets, he says, are highly varied with a low correlation to developed markets, so they are a good diversifier.
While frontier-market economies are a significant share of global GDP, their stock markets remain underdeveloped. Speidell believes this gap will close over time, offering long-term investment opportunities. Progress in frontier markets is slow, however, and requires patience, which Speidell argues is a good approach to investing generally.