What if a single mistake by the European Central Bank could send Europe into a recession? Ricardo Reis, one of the most awarded Portuguese economists of his generation, dismantles the myths around inflation and shows why keeping it under control is a delicate art - with inevitable costs.

In this episode of It’s Not That Simple, the professor of Economics at the London School of Economics, dismantles the idea that this variable can be easily controlled - especially when political decisions, public expectations, and global shocks intersect.

In this conversation, Ricardo Reis reminds that the pandemic and the war in Ukraine were two major tests for monetary policy. In 2020, central banks feared deflation and lowered interest rates. In 2021, people spent more than expected - and inflation surged. When the second shock hit - the war - expectations were already unanchored. «It was this accumulated error that made 2022 inflation more persistent».

The response - raising rates - worked. «Inflation fell without unemployment rising, but it would have dropped faster if there had been a recession». That’s the dilemma that Reis knows well, because he is also an academic consultant to the Bank of England, the Riksbank and the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

And now? The worst is behind us, but expectations have changed. The trust in the ECB is no longer what it once was.

Beyond that, the tariffs imposed by the US on imported goods are the next test, according to the professor. «They’ll generate domestic inflation and a recession», but the risk is global, as they trigger trade wars and could force Europe to retaliate. Could the result be a recession in Europe, as well?

Are we safe hovering in the unknown? Harvard researcher and former assistant director for Space Policy at the White House, Ezinne Uzo-Okoro, is the guest of this «It's not that simple» edition.

In this conversation, Ezinne explains how satellites and space technology are already protecting lives on Earth - from monitoring the climate to anticipating disasters.

But she also discusses the real risks we face: space junk, the increasing privatisation of space and the lack of clear global regulation.

With the end of the International Space Station planned for 2030 and new commercial players entering orbit, the Space Policy advisor raises the question: are we prepared for this new space race?

Exploring space is no longer science fiction - it's a matter of survival.

More on the topic:

Ezinne's portfolio (MIT)

Mars Science Laboratory: Curiosity Rover (NASA)

NASA's blog

AI: a dangerous threat or an indispensable tool for today and the future? «Artificial Intelligence is the most disruptive technology we've ever seen», claims Neil Lawrence, DeepMind Professor of Machine Learning at the University of Cambridge. However, he also believes that AI «is the continuation of a technological revolution» in how we share information via computers.

Speaking in Lisbon, the guest of this edition of «It's Not That Simple» highlighted a critical issue regarding AI usage: «It is not being used in the areas people are asking us to use it: health, social care, education or security.»

While optimistic about the relationship between humanity and AI, Lawrence acknowledges the difficulties in regulating such a rapidly evolving field. He warns against leaving regulation to «inflexible and under-resourced» regulators to «decide the future for us all.»

More on the topic:

Neil Lawrence: «The Atomic Human: What makes us unique in the age of AI» (Talks at Google)

Neil Lawrence: «The Atomic Human - Understanding ourselves in the age of AI» (Finnish Centre for Artificial Intelligence)

Neil Lawrence: ‘Is AI beyond our human understanding?’

BBC interview

Interview with the University of Cambridge

Episode of the ‘Futures’ podcast

Neil Lawrence's Linkedin