Chris, Zack, and Melanie get together to discuss the very rapidly moving events in the Middle East following the execution of Operation Midnight Hammer. Why did President Trump decide to move from negotiating with Iran to ordering the strikes on the country’s nuclear facilities? Is this a case of alliance entrapment, or is it an example of an “America First” foreign policy? Is this the beginning of another long slog for America in the Middle East? Even though he has Republican majorities in the House and Senate, President Trump did not seek congressional authorization for the mission. Was he constitutionally required to do so? What are the most likely near- and medium-term outcomes of the American and Israeli strikes?

There are grievances for Democrats who didn’t object to the unauthorized exercise of war powers by Presidents Obama and Biden but are suddenly relocating their constitutional scruples with a Republican now at the helm, a video message on nuclear weapons by DNI Tulsi Gabbard that may serve to undermine US extended deterrence, and the increasing violence against government officials and lack of security for them.

Attas go to the Institute for Global Affairs for new analysis of several countries’ perceptions of national security threats and priorities, to the United States Armed Forces for the brilliantly executed Operation Midnight Hammer, and to the United States Studies Centre for a fantastic workshop on integrated air and missile defense.

“Video: Kaine Speaks on Senate Floor Regarding His War Powers Resolution to Prevent War with Iran,” June 17, 2025

Eloise Cassier, Jonathan Guyer, Lucas Robinson, Ransom Miller, “2025 International Public Opinion Survey," Institute for Global Affairs, June 12, 2052

Evan Cooper, Christopher Preble, Alessandro Perri, “Restraint Towards Iran Serves US Interests,” Stimson Center, June 18, 2025

Alice Hunt Friend, Melanie Marlowe, Christopher Preble, “Debating the AUMFs,” Net Assessment, February 6, 2020

Patrick Kingsley, Adam Rasgon, Ronen Bergman, Natan Odenheimer, Julian E. Barnes, “Will Israel’s Interceptors Outlast Iran’s Missiles? The Answer May Shape the War,” New York Times, June 19, 2025.

Jonathan Swan, Maggie Haberman, Mark Mazzetti, Ronen Bergman, “How Trump Shifted on Iran Under Pressure from Israel,” New York Times, June 17, 2025.

Darya Dolzikova and Matthew Savill, “Operation Rising Lion: The First 72 Hours,” Royal United Services Institute, June 16, 2025.

Joint Resolution to direct the removal of United States Armed Forces from hostilities against the Islamic Republic of Iran that have not been authorized by Congress, June 2025.

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Chris, Melanie, and Zack discuss the recent short war between India and Pakistan. Christopher Clary’s first cut of history provides a careful reconstruction of the key events, made all the more difficult by misinformation and disinformation on both sides. But did either side “win”? What role, if any, did Trump administration officials play in negotiating the ceasefire, and what does their involvement portend for the future? How did new technology shape each side’s behavior in that conflict? And are crises between the two countries likely to escalate in severity in the coming years, or can they reach some accommodation? Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth earns a grievance for gutting the Pentagon’s operational testing office, but an atta for his strong performance at the Shangri-La Dialogue defense summit in Singapore. Attas to the Ukrainians for the audacious drone attack deep inside of Russia, to President Trump for repealing the supersonic air travel ban, and to the newly elected South Korean President Lee Jae-Myung. Grievances for the abysmal state of servicemembers’ housing, and to the Trump administration’s crackdown on foreign students wishing to attend U.S. universities.

• Christopher Clary, “Four Days in May: The India-Pakistan Crisis of 2025,” Stimson Center, May 28, 2025 https://www.stimson.org/2025/four-days-in-may-the-india-pakistan-crisis-of-2025/

• Asfandyar Mir, “India and Pakistan Enter a More Dangerous Era,” New York Times, May 9, 2025 https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/09/opinion/india-and-pakistan-enter-a-more-dangerous-era.html

• “Five Key Concepts to Understand the India-Pakistan Crisis,” May 19, 2025, Stimson Center https://www.stimson.org/2025/five-key-concepts-to-understand-the-india-pakistan-crisis/

• Supporting Stimson: https://www.stimson.org/support/

• Dan Grazier, “Gutting military testing office may be the deadliest move yet,” Responsible Statecraft, June 4, 2025 https://responsiblestatecraft.org/dod-testing-cuts/

• Choe Sang-Hun, “He Survived a Knife to the Neck. Now He’ll Lead a Divided South Korea,” New York Times, June 3, 2025 https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/03/world/asia/lee-south-korea-new-president.html

• Donald Trump, post, Truth Social, April 22, 2025.

• Donald Trump, post, Truth Social, May 10, 2025.

• Executive Order, “Leading the World in Supersonic Flight,” White House, June 6, 2025.

• Sudhi, Ranjan Sen, Faseeh Mangi, Dan Strumpf, and Akyla Gardner, “Trump Truce Leaves India Furious, Pakistan Elated as Risks Loom,” Bloomberg, May 11, 2025.

• Diaa Hadid and Omkar Khandekar, “Vice President Vance Says India-Pakistan Fighting is ‘None of Our Business,’” National Public Radio, May 10, 2025.

• Timothy A. Walton and Thomas H. Shugart, Concrete Sky: Air Base Hardening in the Western Pacific, Hudson Institute, January 7, 2025.

• Rene Kladzyk, “Navy Secretary ‘Appalled’ by Barracks Conditions in Guam,” Project on Government Oversight, May 29, 2025.

Is President Trump’s approach to foreign policy best described as a spheres of influence approach in which the major players are the United States, China, and Russia? Chris, Melanie, and Zack debate Stacie Goddard’s recent article outlining this idea and assess the implications for Europe, Asia, and North America. Chris expresses frustration with a new brand of American corruption, Melanie highlights China’s acquisition of land near Itaewon, and Zack laments the restructuring of the National Security Council.

• Stacie E. Goddard, “The Rise and Fall of Great-Power Competition,” Foreign Affairs, May/June 2025, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/rise-and-fall-great-power-competition.

• Monica Duffy Toft, “The Return of Spheres of Influence,” Foreign Affairs, March 13, 2025, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/return-spheres-influence.

• Edward Wong, “Trump’s Vision: One World, Three Powers?,” New York Times, May 26, 2025, https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/26/us/politics/trump-russia-china.html.

• Marc Caputo and Alex Isenstadt, “Scoop: Trump, Rubio take aim at National Security Council’s ‘Deep State’,” Axios, May 23, 2025, https://www.axios.com/2025/05/23/white-house-national-security-council-trump-rubio.

• Choe Sang-Hun, “North Korea Makes Arrests Over Failed Ship Launch That Angered Kim Jong-un,” New York Times, May 25, 2025, https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/25/world/asia/north-korea-ship-launch-arrests.html.

• Rebecca Ballhaus and Angus Berwick, “The Father Pursues Trump’s Diplomatic Deals. The Son Chases Crypto Deals,” Wall Street Journal, May 22, 2025, https://www.wsj.com/finance/currencies/trump-steve-zach-witkoff-crypto-6d8a96be

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