We tend to use logic to reach conclusions that agree with our biases. Psychologists call this motivated reasoning. Today, Nate and Maria talk about motivated reasoning in the Biden campaign and Silicon Valley. Also: Conspiracy theories and the NBA draft.

Further Reading:

Fight: Inside the Wildest Battle for the White House

Original Sin: President Biden’s Decline, Its Cover Up, and His Disastrous Choice to Run Again

Elizabeth Holmes’ Partner Has a New Blood-Testing Startup

The Mavs’ Cooper Flagg lottery miracle fuels conspiracy theories – and hope

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The Leap from Maria Konnikova

Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver

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Nate and Maria revisit their conclave predictions, and discuss Maria’s recent win in Monte Carlo. Then the talk about college students’ rampant use of ChatGPT to cheat on assignments, and how colleges and professors might be able to catch up.

Further Reading:

From New York Magazine: Everyone Is Cheating Their Way Through College

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Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver

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Nate and Maria interview former professional poker player Vanessa Selbst—the only woman ever to reach the number one ranking on the Global Poker Index. They discuss her experiences playing poker and her move into the world of finance (she now works for Jane Street Capital). They also discuss why, at her first job in finance, she kept a giant bag of pennies underneath her desk.

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The next pope will be chosen through a ritualized process involving secret ballots, smoke signals, and a lock-in at the Sistine Chapel. Nate and Maria talk about how the papal conclave works, and what it has to teach us about group decision-making and the dynamics of secrecy. They also discuss the studio deal for the new movie Sinners, and share their own top negotiating tips. Plus, they play a game of Would You Rather.

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This week, Nate and Maria talk about the Trump administration’s deportation of Kilmar Abrego Garcia without due process. The stakes are high–but immigration is a stronger issue for Trump in the court of public opinion than tariffs were. Picking a fight with Harvard may also be good politics for the administration. So: how should Democrats, and other anti-Trump forces, respond?

Further Reading:

What if There’s No Way to Stop Trump’s Approach to Power? from Ross Douthat at the New York Times

Nate’s Silver Bulletin post about the Kilmar Abrego Garcia case

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This week, Nate and Maria discuss AI 2027, a new report from the AI Futures Project that lays out some pretty doom-y scenarios for our near-term AI future. They talk about how likely humans are to be misled by rogue AI, and whether current conflicts between the US and China will affect the way this all unfolds. Plus, Nate talks about the feedback he gave the AI 2027 writers after reading an early draft of their forecast, and reveals what he sees as the report’s central flaw.

The AI Futures Project’s AI 2027 scenario: https://ai-2027.com/

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Nate and Maria discuss Trump’s latest round of tariffs. What is the strategy here, if any? What should other decision-makers – like Elon Musk or the United States’ Congress – do to intervene? And how should the average American react?

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This week – after a quick check in on their March Madness brackets – Nate and Maria discuss Trump’s showdown with the Ivy League. Should schools like Harvard and Columbia do more to stand up to the President’s demands?

Then they turn to 23andMe, which has declared bankruptcy. They discuss privacy and whether it’s okay to swap your biometric data for more convenience at the airport.

Last but not least, they tackle the question of how to properly value your time.

Further Reading:

Kashmir Hill’s Your Face Belongs To Us

Sendhil Mullianathan’s research on time poverty

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The Leap from Maria Konnikova

Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver

Get ad-free episodes, and get your questions answered in an exclusive weekly bonus episode, of Risky Business by subscribing to Pushkin+ on Apple Podcasts or Pushkin.fm. Pushkin+ subscribers can access ad-free episodes, full audiobooks, exclusive binges, and bonus content for all Pushkin shows.

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