Republicans are preparing to tear up America’s clean energy tax credits as part of their budget reconciliation megabill. Hollowing out those policies will have sweeping implications for the country’s energy system — it could set back solar, nuclear, and geothermal development; bring less electricity supply onto the grid; and devastate the country’s fledgling electric vehicle supply chain.

A new report — written by our own Jesse Jenkins — is all about the real-life consequences of killing the tax credits. On this week’s episode of Shift Key, Jesse shares the forthcoming analysis of the bill from Princeton University’s REPEAT Project. Rob and Jesse discuss what best-in-class modeling tells us the bill will mean for carbon emissions, the energy economy, the power grid, and consumer energy costs. Shift Key is hosted by Jesse Jenkins, a professor of energy systems engineering at Princeton University, and Robinson Meyer, Heatmap’s executive editor.

Mentioned:

New REPEAT Project report on the GOP reconciliation bill

How a House GOP Proposal Would Essentially Gut the IRA’s Biggest Tax Credits

Why it’s a problem for the clean energy tax credits to lose transferability

Why mortality can fall during recessions: clean air

The natural gas turbine crisis

Jesse’s upshift; Rob’s downshift.

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Music for Shift Key is by Adam Kromelow.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The fight over the Inflation Reduction Act has arrived. After months of discussion, the Republican majority in the House is now beginning to write, review, and argue about its plans to transform the climate law’s energy tax provisions.

We wanted to record a show about how to follow that battle. But then — halfway through recording that episode — the Republican-controlled House Ways and Means Committee dropped the first draft of their proposal to gut the IRA, and we had to review it on-air.

We were joined by Luke Bassett, a former senior advisor for domestic climate policy at the U.S. Treasury Department, and a former senior staff member at the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources. We chatted about the major steps in the reconciliation process, what to watch next, and what to look for in the new GOP draft. Shift Key is hosted by Jesse Jenkins, a professor of energy systems engineering at Princeton University, and Robinson Meyer, Heatmap’s executive editor.

Mentioned:

The House GOP Tax Proposal Would Effectively Kill The IRA

Permitting Reform Is Back — and Buried in Trump’s Tax Bill

The House Ways and Means Committee’s first attempt at rewriting the IRA and its energy tax provisions

(Note: At one point, Luke refers to a permitting reform proposal as coming from the Energy and Commerce Committee. It’s a product of the House Natural Resources Committee.)

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​Music for Shift Key is by Adam Kromelow.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Last week, more than 50 million people across mainland Spain and Portugal suffered a blackout that lasted more than 10 hours and shuttered stores, halted trains, and dealt more than $1 billion in economic damage. At least eight deaths have been attributed to the power outage.

Almost immediately, some commentators blamed the blackout on the large share of renewables on the Iberian peninsula’s power grid. Are they right? How does the number of big, heavy, spinning objects on the grid affect grid operators’ ability to keep the lights on?

On this week’s episode of Shift Key, Jesse and Rob dive into what may have caused the Iberian blackout — as well as how grid operators manage supply and demand, voltage and frequency, and renewables and thermal resources, and operate the continent-spanning machine that is the power grid. Shift Key is hosted by Robinson Meyer, the founding executive editor of Heatmap, and Jesse Jenkins, a professor of energy systems engineering at Princeton University.

Mentioned:

Spain’s Blackout Has Put in Motion a Debate Over Inertia

Spain Discloses New Power Grid Failure on Day of the Blackout

Shift Key: A Beginner’s Guide to the Interconnection Queue

Jesse’s upshift; Rob’s upshift.

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Music for Shift Key is by Adam Kromelow.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Texas is one of the country’s biggest producers of zero-emissions energy. Last year, the Lone Star State surpassed California to become the country’s No. 1 market for utility-scale solar. More solar and batteries were added to the Texas grid in 2024 than any other energy source, and the state has long dominated in onshore wind.

But that buildout is now threatened. A new tranche of bills in the Texas House and Senate could impose punitive engineering requirements on wind, solar, and storage plants — even those already in operation — and they could send the state’s power bills soaring.

Doug Lewin is the founder and CEO of Stoic Energy Partners in Austin, Texas. He writes the Texas Energy and Power Newsletter, and he is the host of the Energy Capital podcast. On this week’s episode of Shift Key, Jesse and Rob talk with Doug about how Texas became a clean energy powerhouse, how it has dealt with eye-watering demand power growth, and why a handful of bills in the Texas statehouse could break its electricity market. Shift Key is hosted by Robinson Meyer, the founding executive editor of Heatmap, and Jesse Jenkins, a professor of energy systems engineering at Princeton University.

Mentioned:

A round-up of the anti-renewables bills now in Texas

A map of renewables across Texas

Electrifying the Permian

The economic impact of renewables & storage in Texas

Rural Texans speak out against SB 819

How Texas consumers benefit from the renewables expansion

Rob’s upshift; Jesse’s upshift.

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Music for Shift Key is by Adam Kromelow.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In just the past few years, Chinese EV-maker BYD has become the most important car company most Americans have still never heard of. It is China’s biggest private employer, the world’s third most valuable automaker (after Tesla and Toyota), and it’s capable of producing more than 5 million cars a year. It’s also just one of dozens of innovative new Chinese auto companies that are set to transform the global mobility market — regardless of what happens with Trump’s tariffs.

On this week’s episode of Shift Key, Jesse and Rob talk with Michael Dunne, the founder of Dunne Insights and a longtime observer of the Chinese automotive sector. Dunne was president of GM Indonesia from 2013 and 2015, and was once managing director of JD Power and Associates’ China division. We talk about the deep history of BYD, the five non-BYD Chinese car companies you should know, and how Western automakers could (with difficulty and a lot of policy help) eventually catch up.

Shift Key is hosted by Jesse Jenkins, a professor of energy systems engineering at Princeton University, and Robinson Meyer, Heatmap’s executive editor.

Mentioned:

Michael Dunne on BYD

Why BYD Keeps Shocking the World

How China Created an EV Juggernaut

Jesse’s upshift; Rob’s downshift.

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Music for Shift Key is by Adam Kromelow.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Donald Trump has implemented what is easily the most chaotic set of American economic policies in recent memory. First, the U.S. declared a trade war on the entire world, imposing breathtaking tariffs on many of the country’s biggest trading partners. He’s paused that effort — but scaled up punitive tariffs on China, launching what would be the 21st century’s biggest global economic realignment without any apparent plan. Now Trump says that more levies are coming on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals, no matter where we get them.

All of this is a disaster for the U.S. economy — but it’s also ruinous for any potential American role in decarbonization or the fight against climate change. Even more than Trump’s deregulatory actions, his trade war could spell the end of a long-held U.S. decarbonization dream.

On this week’s episode of Shift Key, Rob and Jesse chat about what Trump’s chaotic economic policy could mean for the global fight against climate change. What happens to global decarbonization if the U.S. no longer participates? If the U.S. kills its research sector, what happens next? And could China seize this moment to expand its clean tech sector? Shift Key is hosted by Jesse Jenkins, a professor of energy systems engineering at Princeton University, and Robinson Meyer, Heatmap’s executive editor.

Mentioned:

Rob’s new op-ed: Poof! There Goes America’s Competitive Advantage in a Warming World

China’s solar panel exports are increasing to the Global South

Why American manufacturing is so ‘disincentivized,’ according to an induction stove CEO

Trump’s tariffs have killed off the last hope of a U.S. mining boom

Trump’s tariffs are terrible for the oil industry

Jesse’s upshift; Rob’s upshift.

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Music for Shift Key is by Adam Kromelow.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

China’s industrial policy for clean energy has turned the country into a powerhouse of solar, wind, battery, and electric vehicle manufacturing.

But long before the country’s factories moved global markets — and invited Trump’s self-destructive tariffs — the country implemented energy and technology policy to level up its domestic industry. How did those policies work? Which tools worked best? And if the United States needs to rebuild in the wake of Trump’s tariffs, what should this country learn?

On this week’s episode of Shift Key, Rob and Jesse talk with two scholars who have been studying Chinese industrial policy since the Great Recession. Joanna Lewis is the Provost’s Distinguished Associate Professor of Energy and Environment and Director of the Science, Technology and International Affairs Program at Georgetown University's School of Foreign Service. She’s also the author of Green Innovation in China. John Paul Helveston is an assistant professor in engineering management and systems engineering at George Washington University. He studies consumer preferences and market demand for new technologies, as well as China’s longstanding gasoline car and EV industrial policy. Shift Key is hosted by Robinson Meyer, the founding executive editor of Heatmap, and Jesse Jenkins, a professor of energy systems engineering at Princeton University.

Mentioned:

Jesse’s downshift; Rob’s midshift.

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Music for Shift Key is by Adam Kromelow.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The Inflation Reduction Act dedicated $27 billion to build a new kind of climate institution in America — a network of national green banks that could lend money to companies, states, schools, churches, and housing developers to build more clean energy and deploy more next-generation energy technology around the country.

It was an innovative and untested program. And the Trump administration is desperately trying to block it. Since February, Trump’s criminal justice appointees — led by Ed Martin, the interim U.S. attorney for the District of Columbia — have tried to use criminal law to undo the program. After failing to get the FBI and Justice Department to block the flow of funds, Trump officials have successfully gotten the program’s bank partner to freeze relevant money. The new green banks have sued to gain access to the money.

On this week’s episode of Shift Key, Rob and Jesse talk with Kristina Costa, who has been tracking the effort to bankrupt the green banks. Costa helped lead the Inflation Reduction Act’s implementation in the White House from 2022 to 2025 — and is a previous Shift Key guest. She joins us to discuss how Trump is weaponing criminal law to block a climate program, whether there’s any precedent for his actions, and what could come next in the legal battle. Shift Key is hosted by Robinson Meyer, the founding executive editor of Heatmap, and Jesse Jenkins, a professor of energy systems engineering at Princeton University.

Mentioned:

The Hardest Working $27 Billion in the IRA

How Democrats Are Trying to Trump-Proof Their Big Climate Law

Washington Post: Top-ranking career prosecutor resigns after declining to block FBI program

Denise Cheung’s resignation letter

Jesse’s upshift; Rob’s downshift.

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Music for Shift Key is by Adam Kromelow.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.