Jacob Shapiro and Rob Larity discuss the recent Israel-Iran conflict and its geopolitical impacts, including President Trump's ceasefire announcement. They analyze the muted market reactions, particularly oil's price drop, despite heightened tensions. The conversation then explores significant shifts in U.S.-Japan relations, highlighting Japan's rising outward investments as indicative of strategic realignments. Finally, Jacob and Rob reflect on navigating uncertainty, advocating long-term strategic thinking over reactive trading, and emphasizing the importance of preserving mental clarity amid rapid global changes.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction

(04:51) - Markets!

(16:04) - Japan's Economic Strategy and Global Investments

(25:41) - US-Japan Relations: Pre-existing Tensions

(26:31) - Economic Logic and Japanese Investment

(27:58) - Japan's Military Capabilities and Global Perceptions

(30:18) - Japan's Foreign Policy and Public Opinion

(32:17) - Navigating Global Uncertainty and Market Impacts

(33:16) - Trading Geopolitics: Challenges and Strategies

(35:08) - Media Influence and Protecting Your Time

(40:46) - Final Thoughts and Advice

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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

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The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

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Jacob Shapiro sits down with Facundo Robles, Program Coordinator at the Wilson Center’s Latin America Program, for a wide-ranging conversation on how the Israel-Iran conflict intersects with Latin America’s geopolitical and economic realities. They unpack why Latin America remains relatively stable amid global volatility, and how rising oil, fertilizer, and agricultural prices might impact countries like Mexico, Argentina, and Brazil. The conversation weaves through U.S.-China competition, Argentina’s foreign policy under Milei, and Venezuela’s provocative posturing.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction

(04:03) - Impact of Israel-Iran War on Latin America

(05:50) - Regional Stability and Conflicts in Latin America

(12:26) - Country-Specific Analysis: Mexico

(18:17) - Country-Specific Analysis: Argentina

(42:40) - Country-Specific Analysis: Venezuela

(45:42) - Conclusion

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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

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The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

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In this episode, Jacob speaks with Japan analyst Tobias Harris to unpack rising tensions in U.S.-Japan trade relations amid the Trump administration’s tariff blitz. They explore how Japan—historically a close U.S. ally—is reacting to unclear demands, internal U.S. policy chaos, and the potential collapse of trust in American economic leadership. Tobias breaks down the limits of personal diplomacy, the legacy of Shinzo Abe, and why Japan is quietly building plan B trade alliances. They also cover Japan-China relations, a political shift in South Korea, and how domestic rice prices could determine Prime Minister Ishiba’s fate. Global stakes, local politics—fully intertwined.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction

(01:14) - Japan-US Trade Relations

(04:00) - Internal US Negotiation Issues

(09:39) - Japan's Strategic Dilemmas

(14:09) - Hypotheticals and Future Scenarios

(18:50) - Impact of Abe's Relationship with Trump

(24:10) - Japanese Relations with China

(25:25) - Japan's Efforts to Repair Relations

(28:31) - South Korea's New Leadership

(29:57) - Challenges in Japan-South Korea Relations

(36:13) - Japanese Domestic Politics

(40:50) - The Importance of Rice in Japanese Politics

(46:48) - Growing Interest in Japan

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Referenced in the Show:

Tobais' SubStack - https://observingjapan.substack.com/

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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

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The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

--

Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

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