Episodios

  • Is Paradigm C Bullish for Stocks but Bearish for Bonds and the Dollar?

    Is Paradigm C Bullish for Stocks but Bearish for Bonds and the Dollar?
    May 22 2025
    This episode explores the macroeconomic and market impact of the shift to 'Paradigm C' following the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. The hosts discuss a regime that combines monetary and fiscal fuel with supply-side measures, creating a structurally bullish backdrop for equities, gold, and Bitcoin but a bearish outlook for Treasuries and the U.S. dollar. The portfolio strategy remains fully risk-on, supported by resilient economic data and liquidity, with caution around disorderly bond repricing and persistent inflation. Listener questions probe the effect of a higher inflation target on real interest rates and economic growth. Tune in for sector positioning, risk signals, and a deep dive into how aligning policy with reality could help Wall Street and Main Street thrive together.
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    16 m
  • What is the weak U.S. dollar signaling for broader asset markets?

    What is the weak U.S. dollar signaling for broader asset markets?
    May 21 2025
    In this episode, experts explore the implications of a weakening U.S. dollar amid speculation of policy shifts at the upcoming G7 summit, particularly under the Trump administration’s approach to enhancing manufacturing competitiveness. The discussion delves into how coordinated currency policies, alongside populist fiscal expansion, align with broader market trends such as rising multinational earnings and bullish risk assets. Listeners gain insights into the KISS portfolio’s strategic shifts—illustrated by recent moves into Bitcoin and the S&P 500—as well as systematic models (like Dr. Mo and the GRID and Macro Weather Models) that guide market positioning in a REFLATION regime. The podcast also examines risks such as potential yen carry trade unwinds and the evolving landscape of structural fiscal challenges, offering a comprehensive view of current and future asset market dynamics.
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    9 m
  • The Macro Minute

    The Macro Minute
    May 20 2025
    The Macro Minute
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    10 m
  • Should you downgrade the US in your portfolio?

    Should you downgrade the US in your portfolio?
    May 19 2025
    In this episode, the discussion kicks off with Moody’s downgrade of the U.S. sovereign rating from AAA to AA1 and examines the implications of the so‐called “Sell America” trade. Despite symbolic effects, the downgrade highlights concerns over deteriorating fiscal metrics that no longer balance America’s economic strengths. The podcast delves into a portfolio strategy that maintains long positions in U.S. equities and corporate credit while shorting the dollar and Treasurys, set against a backdrop of fiscal expansion, deregulation, and tariffs—a framework dubbed Paradigm C. Quantitative signals including a bullish macro weather model, an inflation regime per the GRID Model, and a risk-on Reflation environment are discussed alongside tactical positioning models. The host also addresses common client queries regarding potential Fed or Treasury reactions, ultimately noting that past downgrades have not led to immediate policy shifts, with market reactions more closely tied to dovish pivots in financing approaches.
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    9 m
  • Will tariffs lead to second-round inflation impacts?

    Will tariffs lead to second-round inflation impacts?
    May 16 2025
    In this episode, Dr. Mo examines how Section 232 tariffs are not causing traditional cost-push inflation but are instead amplifying supply-side constraints in the housing market, leading to structurally higher housing inflation. The discussion covers a portfolio strategy that favors exposure to stocks, gold, and Bitcoin, backed by bullish quantitative signals and a GOLDILOCKS market regime. Additionally, the podcast delves into the implications of fiscal dominance, political pressures, and Powell’s recent comments on the 2% inflation target, raising questions about a potential structural shift in monetary policy.
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    9 m
  • Will tariffs lead to second-round inflation impacts?

    Will tariffs lead to second-round inflation impacts?
    May 16 2025
    The podcast breaks down how Section 232 tariffs are not triggering broad-based cost-push inflation but are instead exacerbating supply-side constraints in the housing market, setting the stage for higher housing inflation. It delves into how tariffs, tighter border enforcement, and policy uncertainty are curbing construction and dampening homebuilder sentiment. The discussion further explores the strategic portfolio allocation of 60% stocks, 30% gold, and 10% Bitcoin designed to capture rising inflation risks, supported by bullish quantitative signals in a GOLDILOCKS market regime. Additionally, the podcast examines the implications of Powell’s stance on the 2% inflation target and the potential for a structural shift higher in the inflation target, highlighting the tensions between fiscal policy and traditional monetary policy in a landscape of evolving risk and opportunity.
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    9 m
  • How did the US economy perform during the peak of the trade war in April?

    How did the US economy perform during the peak of the trade war in April?
    May 15 2025
    This podcast explores the resilience of the U.S. economy during the height of the trade war in April. Despite pronounced tariff shocks, high-frequency data shows persistent economic strength alongside unusually soft inflation readings, raising questions about possible political manipulation. The discussion dives into a KISS portfolio strategy favoring stocks, gold, and Bitcoin, and considers both the quantitative signals and market regime shifts driving a risk-on environment. Additional insights address potential risks, the role of fiscal stimulus, and whether gold’s recent correction offers a buying opportunity amid rising term premiums.
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    9 m
  • The Macro Minute

    The Macro Minute
    May 14 2025
    The Macro Minute
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    10 m
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