Uncertain Times: How We Make Decisions When We Don't Know What's Coming Podcast Por arte de portada

Uncertain Times: How We Make Decisions When We Don't Know What's Coming

Uncertain Times: How We Make Decisions When We Don't Know What's Coming

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 Navigating Uncertainty: Understanding Its Impact on Decision MakingIn this episode of PsyberSpace, host Leslie Poston digs into the complexities of uncertainty and its effects on decision-making. Leslie explores the psychological and physiological responses to uncertainty, including the role of the amygdala and the concept of Intolerance of Uncertainty (IU). The discussion encompasses cognitive biases like the availability heuristic and ambiguity aversion, and the differential impact of uncertainty across various demographics, including cultural, genetic, and socioeconomic factors. Strategies for improving decision-making under uncertainty are presented, such as leveraging system one and system two thinking, scenario planning, mental simulation, and decision hygiene. The episode concludes with practical advice on building tolerance for uncertainty and making more informed decisions amidst life's lack of predictability.00:00 Introduction to Uncertainty01:54 The Brain's Response to Uncertainty02:47 Psychological and Physical Manifestations03:38 Information Overload and Decision Making04:51 Cognitive Biases and Heuristics08:11 Neural Mechanisms and Lifespan Changes10:19 Chronic Uncertainty and Societal Impacts17:22 Improving Decision Making Under Uncertainty20:35 Conclusion and Final ThoughtsReferencesBach, D. R., & Dolan, R. J. (2012). Knowing how much you don't know: A neural organization of uncertainty estimates. Nature Reviews Neuroscience, 13(8), 572-586. Ballesteros, L., & Kunreuther, H. (2018). Organizational Decision Making Under Uncertainty Shocks. National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series, No. 24924. Barberis, N. (2013). The Psychology of Tail Events: Progress and Challenges. SSRN Electronic Journal. Bland, A. R., & Schaefer, A. (2012). Different Varieties of Uncertainty in Human Decision-Making. Frontiers in Neuroscience, 6, 85. Boswell, J. F., Thompson-Hollands, J., Farchione, T. J., & Barlow, D. H. (2013). Intolerance of uncertainty: A common factor in the treatment of emotional disorders. Journal of Clinical Psychology, 69(6), 630-645. Brown, D. J. (2020). Affective Decision Making Under Uncertainty. Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems. Busemeyer, J. R., & Townsend, J. T. (1993). Decision field theory: a dynamic-cognitive approach to decision making in an uncertain environment. Psychological Review, 100(3), 432-459. Carleton, R. N. (2016). Fear of the unknown: One fear to rule them all? Journal of Anxiety Disorders, 41, 5-21.Colk, H. (1988). Risky behaviour resulting from bounded rationality. Ergonomics, 31(4), 501-516.Conejo, A., Carrión, M., & Morales, J. (2010). Decision making under uncertainty in electricity markets. International Conference on Power System Technology, 1-7. Degoulet, M., Willem, L., Baunez, C., Luchini, S., & Pintus, P. (2021). Decision-Making in Rats is Sensitive to Rare and Extreme Events: the Black Swan Avoidance. Working paper.Edwards, W. (1961). Behavioral decision theory. Annual Review of Psychology, 12, 473-498. Ellsberg, D. (1961). Risk, ambiguity, and the Savage axioms. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 75(4), 643-669.Elston, T., Leuthold, H., Mackenzie, I., & Mittelstädt, V. (2024). Extreme Outcomes Accentuate Overweighting of Low Probabilities and Underweighting of High Probabilities in Experience‐Based Choice. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, e2380.Epper, T., & Fehr-Duda, H. (2017). A Tale of Two Tails: On the Coexistence of Overweighting and Underweighting of Rare Extreme Events. Working paper.Etner, J., Jeleva, M., & Tallon, J. (2009). Decision theory under uncertainty. Documents de Travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.Etner, J., Jeleva, M., & Tallon, J. (2023). Decision theory under uncertainty. Working paper.Fox, C. (2002). The Impact of Extreme Events in Decisions Under Uncertainty: A Cognitive Perspective. Working paper.Frank, C. C., & Seaman, K. (2023). Aging, uncertainty, and decision making—A review. Cognitive, Affective, & Behavioral Neuroscience, 23, 617-636. Frydman, C., & Camerer, C. (2016). The Psychology and Neuroscience of Financial Decision Making. Trends in Cognitive Sciences, 20(9), 661-675. Grether, D. (1978). Recent Psychological Studies of Behavior under Uncertainty. The American Economic Review, 68(2), 70-74.Harrison, F. (1977). Decision-Making in Conditions of Extreme Uncertainty. Journal of Management Studies, 14(2), 169-178. Heal, G., & Millner, A. (2014). Reflections Uncertainty and Decision Making in Climate Change Economics. Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, 8(1), 120-137. Helou, M. A., DiazGranados, D., Ryan, M. S., & Cyrus, J. (2019). Uncertainty in Decision-Making in Medicine: A Scoping Review and Thematic Analysis of Conceptual Models. Academic Medicine, 94(11), 1785-1793. Hertwig, R., Pleskac, T., & Pachur, T. (2019). Taming Uncertainty. MIT Press. Hogg, M. A., & Blaylock, D. (2012). Extremism and the psychology of uncertainty. ...
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