Have you ever walked into a strategy meeting, reviewed a well-polished forecast, and felt confident it was solid, only to watch everything unravel months later? You’re not alone. In this episode, we dive into one of the most dangerous yet overlooked pitfalls in leadership: the forecasting trap.

We unpack the three most prominent ways this decision making pitfall shows up and sabotages strategic business decisions: the overconfidence, recallability, and prudence traps. These aren’t just theories—they’re rooted in evolutionary psychology and backed by compelling case studies, from Boeing’s multi-billion-dollar delay to Blackberry’s market misfire.

But more importantly, we explore practical tools for sharpening foresight without killing momentum because leading through uncertainty isn’t about eliminating risk—it’s about building the muscle to navigate it wisely. Tune in for this and more!. And for a deeper dive, order my book, The Mammoth in the Room, for more insights on decision-making traps.

In this episode:

- Introduction to decision-making traps

- The overconfidence trap

- The recallability trap

- The prudence trap

- Actionable strategies to avoid forecasting traps

- Conclusion and recommendations for further reading

Resources Mentioned in the Episode:

Harvard Business Review: The Hidden Traps in Decision Making, John S. Hammond, Ralph L. Keeney, and Howard Raiffa (September–October 1998)

https://hbr.org/1998/09/the-hidden-traps-in-decision-making-2

Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1974). Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases. Science 185,1124-1131(1974). DOI:10.1126/science.185.4157.1124

https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.185.4157.1124

Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1981). The framing of decisions and the psychology of choice. Science, 211(4481), 453–458.

https://sites.stat.columbia.edu/gelman/surveys.course/TverskyKahneman1981.pdf

Van Vugt and Ronay (2014). The Evolutionary Psychology of Leadership: Theory, Review, and Integration” (Organizational Psychology Review) https://www.researchgate.net/publication/274471020_The_evolutionary_psychology_of_leadership_Theory_review_and_roadmap

Get in Touch:

Website: https://www.mammothleadershipsciences.com

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/nicolaspokorny

YouTube: www.youtube.com/@MammothLeadershipSciences