
The Art of Uncertainty
How to Navigate Chance, Ignorance, Risk and Luck
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Narrado por:
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David Spiegelhalter
Acerca de esta escucha
How dangerous is our diet? How much of sports falls into the realm of luck? When authorities categorize a given event as "highly likely"—how likely is that, really? Whether we're trying to decide if the benefits of a new medication are worth the chance of side effects or if artificial intelligence truly threatens humanity, our lives are riddled with uncertainties both everyday and existential—yet it can be difficult to know how to properly weigh all those unknowns. In The Art of Uncertainty, renowned statistician David Spiegelhalter shows how we can become better at dealing with what we don't know to make smarter choices in a world so full of puzzling variables.
In lucid, lively prose, Spiegelhalter guides us through the principles of probability, illustrating how they can help us think more analytically about everything from medical advice to sports to climate change forecasts. He demonstrates how taking a mathematical approach to phenomena we might otherwise attribute to fate or luck can help us sort hidden patterns from mere coincidences, better evaluate cause and effect, and predict what's likely to happen in the future.
Sparkling with wit and fascinating real-world examples, this is an essential guide to navigating uncertainty while also retaining the humility to admit what we don't, or simply cannot, know.
©2024 David Spiegelhalter (P)2024 Penguin AudioLos oyentes también disfrutaron...
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- De: Augustine Sedgewick
- Narrado por: Feodor Chin
- Duración: 9 h y 27 m
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In Fatherhood, celebrated historian Augustine Sedgewick explains how this style of parenting emerged in the first place, why it has changed over time, and whether it will endure as we know it, despite its extraordinary costs. Told through the lives of emblematic fathers like Aristotle, Saint Augustine, Henry VIII, Thomas Jefferson, Charles Darwin, and Sigmund Freud, this is an ambitious yet intimate look at how masculinity has evolved and how men have come to hold disproportionate power by expanding and reinforcing the power of fathers in times of crisis.
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Everything Is Predictable
- How Bayesian Statistics Explain Our World
- De: Tom Chivers
- Narrado por: Tom Chivers
- Duración: 8 h y 7 m
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At its simplest, Bayes’s theorem describes the probability of an event, based on prior knowledge of conditions that might be related to the event. But in Everything Is Predictable, Tom Chivers lays out how it affects every aspect of our lives. He explains why highly accurate screening tests can lead to false positives and how a failure to account for it in court has put innocent people in jail. A cornerstone of rational thought, many argue that Bayes’s theorem is a description of almost everything. But who was the man who lent his name to this theorem?
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I was looking forward to this. What a disappointment.
- De Alessandro Fadini en 06-28-24
De: Tom Chivers
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Bye Bye I Love You
- The Story of Our First and Last Words
- De: Michael Erard
- Narrado por: Stephen Caffrey
- Duración: 13 h y 54 m
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With our earliest utterances, we announce ourselves—and are recognized—as persons ready for social life. With our final ones, we mark where others must release us to death's embrace. In Bye Bye I Love You, linguist and author Michael Erard explores these phenomena, commonly called "first words" and "last words," uncovering their cultural, historical, and biological entanglements and honoring their deep private significance.
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Might be interesting if the narrator could read better
- De Robert K Keim en 07-01-25
De: Michael Erard
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Proof
- The Art and Science of Certainty
- De: Adam Kucharski
- Narrado por: Nathaniel Priestley
- Duración: 9 h y 43 m
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An award-winning mathematician shows how we prove what’s true, and what to do when we can’t.
De: Adam Kucharski
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Chokepoints
- American Power in the Age of Economic Warfare
- De: Edward Fishman
- Narrado por: Robert Petkoff
- Duración: 17 h y 2 m
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It used to be that ravaging another country’s economy required blockading its ports and laying siege to its cities. Now all it takes is a statement posted online by the U.S. government. In Chokepoints, Edward Fishman, a former top State Department sanctions official, takes us deep into the back rooms of power to reveal the untold history of the last two decades of U.S. foreign policy, in which America renounced the gospel of globalization and waged a new kind of economic war.
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Impressive
- De Harry Helbock en 06-17-25
De: Edward Fishman
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Metadata
- The MIT Press Essential Knowledge Series
- De: Jeffrey Pomerantz
- Narrado por: Steven Menasche
- Duración: 5 h y 8 m
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When "metadata" became breaking news, appearing in stories about surveillance by the National Security Agency, many members of the public encountered this once-obscure term from information science for the first time. Should people be reassured that the NSA was "only" collecting metadata about phone calls - information about the caller, the recipient, the time, the duration, the location - and not recordings of the conversations themselves? Or does phone call metadata reveal more than it seems?
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This Rocks!
- De M.Biblioswine en 07-31-20
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Empire of AI
- Dreams and Nightmares in Sam Altman's OpenAI
- De: Karen Hao
- Narrado por: Karen Hao
- Duración: 17 h y 50 m
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When AI expert and investigative journalist Karen Hao first began covering OpenAI in 2019, she thought they were the good guys. Founded as a nonprofit with safety enshrined as its core mission, the organization was meant, its leader Sam Altman told us, to act as a check against more purely mercantile, and potentially dangerous, forces. What could go wrong?
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Well-researched. Timely. Informative. Karen is brilliant and kind!
- De Kahlil Andrews en 05-25-25
De: Karen Hao
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Peak Human
- What We Can Learn from History’s Greatest Civilizations
- De: Johan Norberg
- Narrado por: Andrew Cullum
- Duración: 15 h y 30 m
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All golden ages are marked by periods of spectacular cultural flourishing, scientific exploration, technological achievement and economic growth; yet no two are the same. Their beliefs, societies and place in the wider world all vary. Despite this, all previous golden ages have ended, whether it be because of external pressures or internal fracturing; too much hubris or too little wariness.
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The consist threads that knit the central theme.
- De C. D. en 06-11-25
De: Johan Norberg
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Waste Wars
- The Wild Afterlife of Your Trash
- De: Alexander Clapp
- Narrado por: Greg Lockett
- Duración: 12 h y 46 m
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Dumps and landfills around the world are overflowing. Disputes about what to do with the millions of tons of garbage generated every day have given rise to waste wars waged almost everywhere you look. Some are border skirmishes. Others hustle trash across thousands of miles and multiple oceans. But no matter the scale, one thing is true about almost all of them: few people have any idea they're happening.
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Horrifying Exposé
- De HappyatHeart en 06-24-25
De: Alexander Clapp
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The Invention of Good and Evil
- A World History of Morality
- De: Hanno Sauer
- Narrado por: Callum Coates
- Duración: 12 h y 44 m
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What makes us moral beings? How do we decide what is good and what is evil? And has it always been that way? Hanno Sauer's sweeping new history of humanity, covering five million years of our universal moral values, comes at a crucial moment of crisis for those values, and helps to explain how they arose—and why we need them. Modern societies are in crisis: a shared universal morality seems to be a thing of the past. Hanno Sauer explains why this appearance is deceptive: in fact, there are universal values that all people share.
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Was good until author got political
- De c0stab en 03-01-25
De: Hanno Sauer
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The History of Money
- A Story of Humanity
- De: David McWilliams
- Narrado por: David McWilliams
- Duración: 13 h y 54 m
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The story of humanity is inextricable from that of money. No innovation has defined our own evolution so thoroughly and changed the direction of our planet’s history so dramatically. And yet despite money’s primacy, most of us don’t truly understand it. As leading economist David McWilliams shows, money is central to every aspect of our civilization, from the political to the artistic.
De: David McWilliams
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