In this 7th annual end-of-year episode of the Changing Higher Ed® podcast, Dr. Drumm McNaughton becomes the guest of our podcast as we welcome this year's guest host, Tom Netting, of TEN Government Strategies, to review McNaughton's higher ed predictions for 2024 and explore his higher education 2025 predictions. The discussion reveals how higher education fared over the polarizing election year and what to expect in the coming year. Review of 2024 Higher Ed Predictions and Outcomes Political Environment and Higher Education: Grade A The prediction about increased political involvement in higher education proved remarkably accurate in 2024, particularly given the election year dynamics. The sector experienced unprecedented political scrutiny, culminating in the October 7th congressional hearings that led to the departure of three university presidents. State-level political intervention was particularly evident in Florida, where more than a fifth of University of Florida professors failed post-tenure review under new requirements. A Foundation for Individual Rights and Expression (FIRE) survey of 6,000 faculty members across 55 colleges revealed that one in seven faculty members reported being disciplined or threatened with discipline due to their teaching, research, academic discussions, or off-campus speech. The election year amplified these tensions, with higher education becoming a focal point in political debates. 2024 Enrollment Challenges and Demographics: Grade A The prediction regarding enrollment challenges proved accurate, with institutions facing significant pressures: FAFSA rollout complications created unexpected enrollment barriersRegional institutions and private colleges were particularly affectedInstitutions under 1,000 students faced the greatest vulnerabilityDemographic realities showed concerning trends: from 3.4 million students in 2010 to 3.9 million by 2025, with a projected drop back to 3.4 million over the next 15 years. Institutional Closures and Market Consolidation: Grade A The closure rate accelerated dramatically, rising from 50 closures in 2022 to 80 in 2023. In 2024, 16 nonprofits closed, with Christian colleges representing half of these closures. The impact extended beyond campuses - Wells College's closure in Aurora affected the town's elementary school, water treatment plant, and community medical center. Academic realignment became crucial, exemplified by West Virginia University's cuts of 143 faculty positions and 28 programs and PASSHE's consolidation of six universities into two regional entities. As predicted, smaller private institutions became prime targets for acquisition: Institutions under 1,000 enrollment faced greatest pressureThose without strong endowments particularly vulnerableEarly movers in seeking partnerships fared better than those waiting until financial crisisMarket showing clear signs of mature-to-declining industry characteristics Technology and Artificial Intelligence Adoption: Grade A- The sector showed a clear divide in AI adoption approaches: Miami Dade College and Kogod Business School fully integrated AI across curriculaOther institutions maintained strict opposition to AI-generated contentFaculty concerns about AI replacing jobs emerged at institutions like University of WisconsinProgressive institutions recognized AI's potential in enrollment management, student outcomes measurement, and program assessment Student Needs and Pandemic Recovery: A- Post-pandemic adaptation revealed mixed results: Successful intense tutoring programs demonstrated three to four months of focused support could gain students a year in academic progressFaculty resistance to changing traditional teaching methods remained stronger than anticipatedGrowing sense of student and faculty disengagement emergedIncreased burden on faculty as informal student counselorsShift toward more transactional educational relationships Higher Education 2025 Predictions Legislative and Regulatory Environment Higher Education Act Reform Partial reform through budget reconciliation rather than comprehensive overhaulImplementation of short-term Pell Grants with bipartisan supportDepartment of Education reorganization likely but not dissolutionEnhanced focus on workforce development while maintaining liberal arts values Regulatory Changes Significant modifications to existing regulations under new administrationMajor changes to accreditation oversight through legislationEvolution of NACIQI's role and authorityEnhanced institutional accountability measuresChallenges to regulatory authority through cases like Loper Bright Market Evolution and Institutional Viability Enrollment and Demographics One-time enrollment increase in early 2025 due to FAFSA resolutionSubsequent decline as demographic cliff impacts materializeUncertainty in international student enrollment due to immigration policiesCritical need for innovative recruitment strategiesExpansion of direct admission ...
