We pundits have done more than our fair share speculating on whether, how, when and with what consequences there could be peace or a ceasefire in Ukraine, but instead it seems a good time to see what various research projects suggest about what ordinary Russians and Ukrainians think. This is something that is actually harder to ascertain than one might assume, but it important, not least for conditioning the decisions the respective governments may make.

The various articles and surveys I cite are:

Friedrich Ebert Stiftung : https://library.fes.de/pdf-files/bueros/wien/21742.pdf
Russian Field : https://russianfield.com/svo16
Gallup : https://news.gallup.com/poll/653495/half-ukrainians-quick-negotiated-end-war.aspx
Meduza : https://meduza.io/en/feature/2025/01/09/we-expected-the-war-to-end
PS Lab : https://publicsociologylab.com/en
New Yorker : https://www.newyorker.com/news/a-reporter-at-large/do-russians-really-support-the-war-in-ukraine
Vedomosti : https://www.vedomosti.ru/society/articles/2024/12/25/1083523-vnimanie-cherez-silu
Ukrainska Pravda : https://www.pravda.com.ua/rus/articles/2025/01/9/7492626/
Russia Post : https://russiapost.info/politics/ceasefire

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Outright prediction may be a mug's game, but what are some of the people and processes I will be watching in 2025?

For those who get lost in the flow, they are:

PERSONALIA

· Elvira Nabiullina

· Ramzan Kadyrov

· Alexander Khinshtein

· Alexei Dyumin

· Sergei Naryshkin

· Nikolai Patrushev

· (Not Mikhail Mishustin/Anton Vaino)

INSTITS

· Security Council

· FSB

· State Council

PROCESSES

· ‘Covert federalisation’

· Lateral alliances

· End of party pseudo-politics?

· Rise of SVO generation?

· Labour shortage

· Deviancy

POLICIES

· Shadow War

· Africa/North Africa

· India

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Sabotage under the Baltic, a grudging apology, a possible attack on a Russian cargo ship, firebombing ATMs, energy blackmail in Moldova... what connects them beyond a sense that, having changed his rules of engagement abroad in 2024, Putin may find this coming to bite him in 2025. Either way, it looks like the coming year will be a bumpy one, to say the least.

The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.

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What can one learn from Putin's 4½-hour-long end of year press conference? Essentially, his message to his people is that - however they might feel - everything is fine and they should stay the course. Meanwhile, over Ukraine if anything his line may be hardening: he may talk of 'compromise', but is trying to define the terms of any future peace. Anyway, I listened to 4½ hours, and offer you only one hour...

The article by Joshua Huminski I mentioned is here.

The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.

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We tend to focus on the big challenges facing Russia: war, sanctions, the struggle of authoritarianism vs the remnants of civil society. Maybe it is time to look at some of the less often discussed problems that nonetheless characterise the emerging Russian 'polycrisis': demographics, the mephedrone epidemic, and crumbling transport infrastructure: sex, drugs and rocky roads.

The OSW report on demographics I mentioned is here; the Global Initiative report on drugs is here.

My IWM podcast on Syria with Misha Glenny and Eva Konzett is here.

The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.

You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here.

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So Bashar al-Assad's blood-drenched regime has fallen. Hurrah. But what now for Russia? Is this a terrible geopolitical defeat, or actually something that perversely frees it from a commitment made in 2015, yet less relevant today? What are the likely knock-on effects for Russia's position in the Mediterranean and Africa? The hottest of hot takes.

That Q&A with Sam Heller and Aron Lund is at:

https://tcf.org/content/commentary/syrias-civil-war-has-roared-back-how-far-can-the-rebels-go/

The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.

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President Zelensky's suggestion that military attempts to retake the occupied territories could be abandoned in return for rapid NATO membership for Ukraine does mark a change in tack. What is driving this political-diplomatic adaptation?

And, in the second half, I draw on four books that speak in different ways to how Russia has managed (and sometimes failed) to adapt to the military and economic struggle, to bring them to this position.

The books are:

• Christopher Lawrence, The Battle for Kyiv (Frontline, 2023)
• Mick Ryan, The War for Ukraine. Strategy and adaptation under fire (Naval Institute Press, 2024)
• Stephanie Baker, Punishing Putin. Inside the global economic war to bring down Russia (Simon & Schuster, 2024)
• Charles Hecker, Zero Sum. The arc of international business in Russia (Hurst, 2024)

The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.

You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here.

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Schrödinger's Defence Minister, at once busy and visible yet strangely inconsequential and intangible, what can one make of Andrei Belousov, his rise and his chances of achieving anything in his current role?

The entry page for the Conducttr online crisis exercise on Russian sabotage I mentioned is @ https://www.conducttr.com/russian-sabotage

The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.

You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here.

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