Link to IWP's September Update (PDF) - IWP Monthly Update - September 2024

This month Andrew and Chris walk through the last month of financial markets.

We discuss the main themes of:

• Some calm has been restored in markets following a sharp rise in downside volatility in late July and early August.
• Eurozone inflation continues to fall
• Australian inflation remains high - pushing expected rate cuts into 2025

Should you prefer this in video form, please head to YouTube - IWP Market Update - September 2024

Link to IWP's August Update (PDF) - IWP Monthly Update - August 2024

During the first few days of August there have been several significant economic updates:

• The Bank of England began its rate-cutting cycle by cutting the official rate by 0.25%
• The Bank of Japan raised rates (to 0.25%) and announced a reduction in its bond buying program.
• Australian core inflation fell marginally, and;
• There was a softer than expected US jobs report.

Whilst economic growth data has been choppy recently, in aggregate it has remained consistent with a moderate, if slowing, global expansion.

This view was called into question last Friday with the relatively weak US unemployment data release and this was a key catalyst in market participants calling expectations of a “soft landing” into question.

As a result Shane and Chris walk through the events of the week, our views, and what this means for client portfolios.

Should you prefer this in video form, please head to YouTube - IWP Market Update - August 2024

Link to IWP's July Update (PDF) - https://tinyurl.com/254t7rtv

This month Chris and Andrew walked through the months market and economic events.

Along with our usual analysis, we touched on the following key points:

Market volatility has increased with elections in several countries:

o France

o November US election

o India

o Mexico

o South Africa

US core Inflation has slowed to 2.6% – increasing the chance of rate cuts this calendar year

Persistent Inflation pressures here in Australia – and a potential disconnect between government and monetary policy.

Should you prefer this in video form, please head to YouTube - https://youtu.be/i76UGbdGxNE

June 2024 Summary:

This month Shane and Chris walk through the months market and economic events:

1. Unexpected rise in Australian unemployment (4.10% versus expected 3.9%)
2. 2024 Federal Budget – was it a net positive or negative for inflation?
3. Interest rates – both here in Australia and in the US
   • Australia - Bullock stating that the RBA will target a gradual approach as they want to maintain strong jobs
   • US – Economy looks to be slowing – e.g. Jobs Openings data overnight

Link to youTube - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7fQse_tgRLA

Link to the Monthly Update Slide Deck - https://tinyurl.com/25mqj5zp

May 2024 Summary:

This month Cameron and Andrew walk through the economic and market events of May.

We continued to see more volatility markets, as the central banks around the world grapple with the direction of interest rates.

We also discussed the changing nature of the Australian economy over the last decade, and how population changes has shaped our various economic sectors.

As we have been saying for the last few months, ‘where to from here’ will be data dependent, and largely driven by interest rate expectations.

Link to youTube - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7fQse_tgRLA

Link to the Monthly Update Slide Deck - https://tinyurl.com/25mqj5zp

March 2024 Summary:

This month Chris and Andrew walk through the start of 2024. It has been a fantastic 8 weeks for markets, as the turnaround since November has continued in earnest. We discuss how this has impacted portfolios, as well as the falling savings ratios and negative disposable income that Australian households are facing at the moment. We walk through what risks are still present, and we might look forward to over the remainder of 2024.

Link to youTube - https://youtu.be/-DoZqGrPqpg

Link to the Monthly Update Slide Deck - https://tinyurl.com/22gr8sbc

For the start of 2024 we decided to take a look back through calendar year 2023, as well as chat through the current expectations for the 2024 year.

To do so, we invited in Sean Hollins from Willis Towers Watson (WTW). Sean is the Head Portfolio Manager (Australia), and sits on the IWP investment Committee each quarter. WTW's input is invaluable when we make our portfolio asset allocation and investment decisions.

This month, Shane and Andrew talk through the market events of November. Returns have been strong across all assets classes. Financial data has shown a more rapid reduction in inflation than markets expected, both in Europe and the US.

In Australia, we are still waiting for service inflation to taper off - and this is continues to be a key item of interest for Michele Bullock and the Reserve Bank.