As 2024 comes to a close, the Money Wise guys take a closer look at the year’s final numbers and a challenging December for the markets. The Dow Jones fell 260 points (-0.6%), the S&P 500 dropped 28 points (-0.5%), and the NASDAQ declined 100 points (-0.5%) for the week. Despite the weak December performance—attributed to Federal Reserve actions dampening the anticipated "Santa Claus rally"—2024 was an outstanding year for investors, with the Dow gaining 14.99%, the S&P 500 rising 25.02%, and the NASDAQ climbing 29.57% (including dividends).

The discussion focuses on the impact of Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell’s policies, particularly the increase in bond yields, which saw the 10-year Treasury rise from 3.87% to 4.58% over the year. The guys highlight the uneven performance within the bond market, where shorter-duration bonds outperformed their longer-duration counterparts. Target-date funds and longer-maturity bonds faced a tough fourth quarter due to rising interest rates but still managed solid annual returns. While the Fed’s December actions tempered the year-end rally, the guys emphasize the strong returns for diversified portfolios in 2024 and tease predictions for 2025 in an upcoming episode.

Rising bond yields in 2024 had a significant impact on the financial markets, with the 10-year Treasury yield increasing by 71 basis points, from 3.87% to 4.58%. This shift, driven by the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy and persistent inflation concerns, created challenges for certain segments of the bond market. Short-term and intermediate-term bonds performed relatively well, but longer-duration bonds and funds, such as target-date portfolios, experienced negative returns in the fourth quarter due to their sensitivity to rising rates. Overall, the bond market delivered modest annual returns, with the Bloomberg Aggregate Index gaining just 1.25%, underscoring the importance of managing duration in a rising yield environment.

In the second hour, the Money Wise guys discuss Equity Inxex Annuities. You don’t want to miss the details! Tune in for the full discussion on your favorite podcast provider or at davidsoncap.com, where you can also learn more about the Money Wise guys or take advantage of a portfolio review and analysis with Davidson Capital Management.

In this week’s episode, the Wise Money guys review a turbulent week on Wall Street, with the Dow Jones falling 988 points (-2.3%), the S&P 500 declining 120 points (-2%), and the NASDAQ dropping 354 points (-1.8%). Despite the weekly losses, year-to-date gains remain strong, with the Dow up 13.7%, the S&P 500 up 24.3%, and the NASDAQ up 30.4%. The team reflects on the market's reaction to the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting, drawing comparisons to 2018’s December volatility. With the Fed signaling fewer rate cuts than anticipated for 2025, the markets responded with a knee-jerk decline, raising questions about clarity and consistency in messaging.

The discussion highlights the challenges of interpreting Fed communications, as markets grapple with the transition back to "data dependency" and uncertainty surrounding future policy decisions. The guys explore the S&P 500’s dip below its 50-day moving average midweek and its recovery to that level by Friday, analyzing whether this correction presents a buying opportunity. They also dive into the implications of inflation’s persistence and the broader economic outlook as investors prepare for 2024.

The predicted volatility in the markets stems from uncertainty surrounding Federal Reserve policy, particularly the pace and extent of interest rate cuts in 2025. The Fed's recent shift back to a "data-dependent" approach and mixed messaging have created confusion among investors, leading to sharp market reactions. This uncertainty is further compounded by inflation’s persistence, despite rate hikes, and broader economic concerns like wage growth, housing affordability, and geopolitical factors. As the market adjusts to these evolving dynamics, investors should brace for more fluctuations in the months ahead.

In the second hour, the Money Wise guys divulge what Wall Street Won’t Tell You. You don’t want to miss the details! Tune in for the full discussion on your favorite podcast provider or at davidsoncap.com, where you can also learn more about the Money Wise guys or take advantage of a portfolio review and analysis with Davidson Capital Management.

In this week’s episode, the Money Wise guys dive into Wall Street’s recent performance, highlighting the Dow’s 1.8% drop, the S&P 500’s modest 0.6% decline, and the NASDAQ’s 0.3% gain. Year-to-date, the Dow remains up 16.3%, the S&P 500 has climbed 26.9%, and the NASDAQ continues to lead with a 32.7% increase. The discussion shifts to the recent seven-day losing streak for the Dow—something not seen since 2020—and explores how technical indicators show markets moving sideways since early December. Historically, the second full week of December has shown similar flat or negative trends, even during a strong secular bull market.

The guys also delve into inflation, dissecting the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) reports. While inflation remains relatively sticky, with both measures ticking slightly higher, they explore key factors such as rising wages, which continue to outpace inflation-adjusted earnings for many workers. Housing inflation remains a significant contributor, with mortgage rates hovering above 6.5%, and the guys explain why rates need to dip closer to 6% to see substantial relief in the real estate market. Looking ahead, the group anticipates the Federal Reserve’s next move and examines the potential tone for 2025. While markets initially expected aggressive rate cuts next year, expectations have tempered, signaling caution and limited reductions as the Fed remains data-dependent. To close, the conversation touches on broader economic and political dynamics, including the potential for a “Santa Claus rally” post-Christmas and the implications of upcoming policies as the nation approaches a new president.

The Santa Claus Rally refers to the tendency for the stock market to experience a rise during the final trading days of December and the first few days of January. This seasonal phenomenon is often attributed to a combination of factors, including year-end tax strategies, holiday optimism, increased retail investor activity, and institutional investors closing their books for the year. While not guaranteed, the rally has historically been seen as a positive signal for market sentiment heading into the new year, providing investors with a boost of confidence during the holiday season.

In the second hour, the Money Wise guys explore RIA vs. Broker. You don’t want to miss the details! Tune in for the full discussion on your favorite podcast provider or at davidsoncap.com, where you can also learn more about the Money Wise guys or take advantage of a portfolio review and analysis with Davidson Capital Management.

In this week’s episode, the Money Wise guys reflect on Wall Street’s recent performance, highlighting the Dow’s 0.6% drop last week, alongside gains of 1% in the S&P 500 and 3.3% in the NASDAQ. Year-to-date, the Dow is up 18.4%, the S&P 500 is up 27.7%, and the NASDAQ has climbed 32.3%. They discuss November's strong numbers, with the Dow rising 7.5%, the S&P gaining nearly 5.75%, and the NASDAQ up over 6%, driven by what they call the “Trump bump.” As they analyze the ongoing bull market that began in October 2022, the discussion shifts to expectations for a potential "Santa Claus rally" to close the year. The conversation also explores market reactions to Trump’s policies, including tariffs and economic strategies, alongside the bond market's response to shifts in interest rates. The team debates the implications of Trump’s negotiating tactics, which they believe are driving geopolitical and economic adjustments before his inauguration.

The "Trump bump" refers to the stock market rally often attributed to the economic optimism and pro-business policies associated with Donald Trump, particularly during and after his election victories. This phenomenon is driven by expectations of corporate tax cuts, deregulation, and infrastructure spending, which investors believe will boost earnings and economic growth. The term captures the market's initial surge following Trump's election in 2016 and, more recently, renewed gains linked to his anticipated policy actions in a second term. It reflects market sentiment responding to his influence on fiscal and trade policies, often seen as favorable to business and investment.

In the second hour, the Money Wise guys share The Best Investment Advice Ever. You don’t want to miss the details! Tune in for the full discussion on your favorite podcast provider or at davidsoncap.com, where you can also learn more about the Money Wise guys or take advantage of a portfolio review and analysis with Davidson Capital Management.

In this week’s episode, the Money Wise guys discuss Nvidia’s addition to the Dow, what will continue to fuel the current bull market, and last week’s numbers from Wall Street. The Dow was up 2.0%, the S&P 500 was up 1.7%, and the NASDAQ was up 1.7%. YTD the Dow is up 17.5%, the S&P 500 is up 25.1%, and the NASDAQ is up 26.6%. The guys begin the show by discussing Nvidia’s (NVDA) recent addition to the Dow and how it is likely to help keep the Dow more in line with the other major indexes. Nvidia earnings also came out last week, and the Money Wise guys discuss what happens if the company can’t fulfill demand in the way the market expects. They dig further into Nvidia’s performance in recent years, discussing how you’d likely have to go back to the dot-com era to find another company that has gone this far this fast - and after being completely unloved by Wall Street before the AI boom, too. The guys also discuss trends in market breadth and what will continue to fuel the bull market.

In this episode, the Money Wise guys spend time discussing how the Dow has differed historically from the other major indexes. They discuss the differences in an index being price-weighted, like the Dow, and market-cap weighted, like the S&P. They also share why the addition of Nvidia should make the Dow more competitive with the other major indexes. For more on Nvidia replacing Intel in the Dow, check out resources here and here.

In the second hour, the Money Wise guys pull back the curtain to share What Wall Street Won’t Tell You. You don’t want to miss the details! Tune in for the full discussion on your favorite podcast provider or at davidsoncap.com, where you can also learn more about the Money Wise guys or take advantage of a portfolio review and analysis with Davidson Capital Management.

In this week’s episode, the Money Wise guys discuss a market pullback as we come down from the “Trump Bump”, what the Fed is saying about interest rates, and the animal spirits of capitalism. First, let’s look at last week’s numbers from Wall Street, which saw the Dow down 1.2%, the S&P 500 down 2.1%, and the NASDAQ down 3.1%. YTD we’re still in the black, with the Dow up 15.3%, the S&P up 23.1%, and the NASDAQ up 24.4%. Was it an attack of the Fed last week? The Money Wise guys discuss how remarks from a current and former Fed Governor impacted the markets last week, as well as why it’s not surprising to have a market pullback as investors come down from the post-election sugar high. They also discuss the wisdom of using a market pullback as a buying opportunity, even at high valuations. We saw some market-friendly numbers released last week with regard to inflation, and the Money Wise guys also discuss what we might expect in 2025, though much is still speculation.

Let’s review the basics of a market pullback since we experienced one last week. A market pullback refers to a brief decline or pause in a generally upward market trend. Investors who are confident the pullback will be brief may use it as a buying opportunity, as the Money Wise guys discuss in this episode. To learn more about what a market pullback means, check out this resource. In the second hour, the Money Wise guys pull back the curtain to share What Wall Street Won’t Tell You. You don’t want to miss the details! Tune in for the full discussion on your favorite podcast provider or at davidsoncap.com, where you can also learn more about the Money Wise guys or take advantage of a portfolio review and analysis with Davidson Capital Management.

In this week’s episode, the Money Wise guys discuss how the markets reacted to the presidential election, including conviction buys, historic spikes, and a level of volume rarelyt seen. First, let’s review the numbers from Wall Street. Last week, the Dow was up 4.6%, the S&P 500 was up 4.7%, and the NASDAQ was up 5.7%. YTD the Dow is up 16.7%, the S&P is up 25.7%, and the NASDAQ is up 28.5%. The Money Wise guys are feeling giddy this week, and and the market seems to feel the same. All three major indices are at all-time highs, and it was the best week for the Dow and S&P in four years. In fact, the day after the election gave us the biggest gains the Dow has seen post-election since 1896 and largest post-election gains for the S&P and the NASDAQ in history. The guys parse through the numbers, discuss the opportunity cost faced by those who chose to sit on the sidelines before the election, and what we saw as far as conviction buying and short covering. For more on what the markets usually look like post-election, check out this resource from The Street.

Since the Money Wise guys mention conviction buying in this episode, let’s dig into what this phenomenon is. Conviction buying is when an investor - in this case many - feels absolutely convinced that they have properly analyzed what a stock or stock index will do, as well as being absolutely convinced that they will make an outstanding gain. In this case, conviction buying refers to all those investors who were hedging their bets prior to the election and have now decided to buy in.

In the second hour, the Money Wise guys share important differences in an RIA vs. Broker discussion. You don’t want to miss the details! Tune in for the full discussion on your favorite podcast provider or at davidsoncap.com, where you can also learn more about the Money Wise guys or take advantage of a portfolio review and analysis with Davidson Capital Management.

The Numbers Don’t Lie on Rising Consumer Costs & Political Talk Ahead of the Election

In this week’s episode of Money Wise, the Money Wise guys discuss economic statistics, rising consumer costs, and why so many investors aren’t ready to deploy capital until after the election. First, let’s begin with a look at last week’s numbers from Wall Street. The Dow was down 0.1%, the S&P 500 was down 1.4%, and the NASDAQ was down 1.5%. YTD all three indices remain in the black, with the Dow up 11.6%, the S&P 500 up 20.1%, and the NASDAQ up 21.5%. October showed a fairly flat month across the board, which may have to do with so many investors waiting to see how the elections will pan out before deploying additional capital. The guys also discuss the recent Microsoft hit, why we saw significant selling last week, and where the sales volume falls in relation to the daily moving average. Last week was also chock-full of economic stats, including the PCE Index. The Money Wise guys discuss the impacts of inflation and how so much in the consumers’ “basket of goods” has gotten more expensive.

Rising Consumer Costs: By The Numbers

The Money Wise guys mention the PCE Price Index in this episode in relation to rising consumer costs. This index measures inflation by tracking the cost of living for households, and it is the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of prices in the U.S. The Money Wise guys discuss why rising consumer costs may be the reason we are seeing higher than normal early voting, as more voters cast their ballots with their pocketbooks in mind. For more on the PCE Index and rising consumer costs, check out this resource.

In the second hour, the Money Wise guys share important warnings about Equity Index Annuities. You don’t want to miss the details! Tune in for the full discussion on your favorite podcast provider or at davidsoncap.com, where you can also learn more about the Money Wise guys or take advantage of a portfolio review and analysis with Davidson Capital Management.