In this episode, I sit down with Shahar Hechtlinger, a PhD candidate in Psychology, to explore transformative life decisions—choices that can change who we are, such as becoming a parent, changing careers, or moving to a new country. We discuss how much decision-making research focuses on idealized models but lacks insights into how people actually make these life-altering choices. We examine why the expected utility model—a traditional way of thinking about rational decisions—does not really work for these situations, largely because the future is uncertain and what matters to us can shift over time. Drawing on the work of philosopher L. A. Paul, we discuss how these experiences challenge conventional notions of rationality and require a different approach. Shahar Hechtlinger introduces a new conceptual framework from her research, offering simple strategies for navigating transformative life decisions, including imagining your ideal self, considering future regret, and taking incremental steps to manage irreversible choices. We also discuss findings from Shahar’s most recent study, showing that while people often rely on simpler strategies for themselves, they tend to recommend more complex approaches for others. This episode equips listeners with simple strategies and real-life examples to navigate transformative decisions, emphasizing the value of embracing uncertainty when facing life’s most significant choices.

The episode transcript is available at www.unravelingbehavior.org.

Timestamps

(01:03) Defining transformative life decisions and their significance

(04:26) Differentiating between descriptive and normative approaches in decision-making research

(06:21) Explaining the expected utility model and the challenge of uncertainty in decision outcomes

(10:25) Laurie Paul’s distinction between epistemically and personally transformative experiences

(14:16) Why transformative decisions conflict with the expected utility model

(16:50) Is deciding to remain childless a transformative decision?

(18:29) Key insights from Laurie Paul's appearance on the EconTalk podcast

(19:25) Linking Laurie Paul’s insights to Shahar Hechtlinger’s descriptive approach to transformative decision making

(21:03) Introducing a new conceptual framework for studying transformative life decisions

(24:43) Choosing from the perspective of the current self versus the future self

(28:00) The decision of Iranian athlete Saeid Mollaei to pursue his Olympic dream

(29:06) The minimax inaction regret strategy, illustrated by Jeff Bezos

(33:08) Minimizing irreversible consequences using the “testing the waters” strategy

(36:16) Christine Blasey Ford’s gradual disclosure of her identity

(38:44) Dealing with conflicting cues through a process of elimination

(42:51) Overview of Shahar’s empirical study on transformative life decisions

(45:36) The contrast between people’s use of simpler strategies and their recommendation of more complex ones

(49:37) How research on transformative life decisions can empower decision makers

In this episode, I am joined by Dr. Tomás Lejarraga, a behavioral scientist working at the intersection of economics and psychology. We explore how birth order influences siblings' willingness to take risks. Our discussion begins by examining the long-held hypothesis that younger, laterborn children are more prone to taking risks than their older siblings. Dr. Lejarraga shares insights from a study on risk-taking behavior in adulthood, revealing surprising findings that challenge this belief. We also discuss a second study suggesting that while birth order effects cannot be entirely dismissed, they are primarily observable in younger ages and may not persist throughout life. Additionally, we delve into the various methods scientists use to assess individuals' willingness to take risks, the competitive dynamics among siblings, the implications of null results, and the influence of environment and culture on birth order effects. The episode will help listeners understand the complexities of sibling differences and how family environments shape our behavior.

The episode transcript is available at www.unravelingbehavior.org.

Timestamps

(01:33) How risk preferences form and develop

(03:37) Family dynamics and their impact on personality traits and risk taking

(08:42) Defining laterborns

(10:40) Past research on birth order effects on personality and risk taking

(16:25) Methodology used to study birth order effects in adulthood

(19:51) Self-reported risk taking and exploring personal assessments

(26:01) Lab experiments and analyzing risky choices in controlled settings

(30:49) Real-life risks and the choices of notable explorers and revolutionaries

(33:47) Interpreting null results and what they mean for birth order research

(36:20) Could birth order effects be confined to family environments?

(39:27) Investigating birth-order effects across different age groups

(45:18) Parental strategies on whether to counteract or embrace the influence of birth order

(48:09) Focus on Western samples in birth order research and the need for cross-cultural studies

(50:13) Understanding common perceptions about birth order effects

(51:25) Learning pathways with instruction vs. experience depending on birth order

(53:10) The environment's influence in shaping risk-taking behavior

In this episode, I am joined by Dr. Lisa Oswald, a computational social scientist and expert on public discourse in online environments. We dive into an impactful study she coauthored in the journal Nature Human Behaviour, which examines the complex relationship between digital media and democracy. Our discussion covers how digital platforms can both empower political participation and contribute to political polarization. We clarify the differences between correlational and causal evidence, explaining why causal evidence is scarce and challenging to obtain when studying the effects of social media use on democracy. An important takeaway is the skewed nature of content production on social media—where a small number of users generate the majority of content, often amplifying extreme or biased viewpoints. We also explore the importance of political context, the role of corporate responsibility, and the necessity for transparency and content moderation policies to safeguard democratic institutions.

Access the full show notes for this episode at unravelingbehavior.org.

Timestamps

(00:00) Introduction

(01:46) The potential of digital media to erode democracy

(06:33) Research question motivating the study

(07:35) Importance of a systematic literature review

(10:39) Types of digital media and political behaviors analyzed

(14:13) Correlational vs. causal evidence

(18:31) Selection of articles in the review

(19:41) Scarcity of causal evidence and its alignment with correlational findings

(21:03) Beneficial effects of digital media use on political participation

(22:46) Increased digital media use linked to decreased trust in governments

(24:11) Increased digital media use linked to greater political polarization

(25:14) The skewed nature of content production on social media

(28:43) The role of political context

(31:57) Internet companies’ reactions to scientific findings

(33:26) The need for data access for researchers and greater transparency for users

(34:19) Balancing user awareness with corporate and governmental responsibility

(37:15) Conclusion