On April 3, flanked by the outgoing and incoming prime ministers of Greenland, the Danish leader, Mette Frederiksen, reiterated that “you cannot annex another country”. This was not a message sent to Russian president Vladimir Putin, but to Donald Trump, the president of one of her country’s closest allies, who has threatened to take over Greenland.Frederiksen, speaking in Greenland’s capital Nuuk, was stating something that is obvious under international law but can no longer be taken for granted in international politics. US foreign policy under Donald Trump has become a major driver of this uncertainty, playing into the hands of Russian, and potentially Chinese, territorial ambitions.The incoming Greenlandic prime minister, Jens-Frederik Nielsen, made it clear that it was for Greenlanders to determine their future, not the United States. Greenland formally became part of Denmark under the terms of the 1814 Treaty of Kiel, first as a colony and in 1953 as a province. Since 1979, it has enjoyed a large degree of autonomy. Polls suggest a majority of islanders want independence from Denmark in the future, but don’t want to be part of the US. As Nielsen put it in response to Marco Rubio, Trump’s secretary of state, “He is not right that Greenland wants to secede tomorrow. He is right that Greenland does not want to be Danish, but Greenland certainly doesn't want to be American either."Trump’s interest in Greenland is often associated with the island’s vast, but largely untapped, mineral resources. But its strategic location is arguably an even greater asset.Trump’s interest in Greenland is often associated with the island’s vast, but largely untapped, mineral resources. But its strategic location is arguably an even greater asset. Shipping routes through the Arctic have become more dependable and for longer periods of time during the year as a result of melting sea ice. The northwest passage (along the US and Canadian shorelines) and the northeast passage (along Russia’s Arctic coast) are often ice free now during the summer.This has increased opportunities for commercial shipping. For example, the distance for a container ship from Asia to Europe through the northeast passage can be up to three times shorter, compared to traditional routes through the Suez Canal or around Africa. Similarly, the northwest passage offers the shortest route between the east coast of the United States and Alaska. Add to that the likely substantial resources that the Arctic has, from oil and gas to minerals, and the entire region is beginning to look like a giant real estate deal in the making.The economic promise of the Arctic, and particularly the region’s greater accessibility, have also heightened military and security sensitivities.On March 27, the day before JD Vance, Trump's vice president, visited Greenland, Vladimir Putin gave a speech at the sixth international Arctic forum in Murmansk in Russia’s high north, warning of increased geopolitical rivalry. While he claimed that “Russia has never threatened anyone in the Arctic”, he was also quick to emphasise that Moscow was “enhancing the combat capabilities of the Armed Forces, and modernising military infrastructure facilities” in the Arctic.Equally worrying, Russia has increased its naval cooperation with China and given Beijing access, and a stake, in the Arctic.Equally worrying, Russia has increased its naval cooperation with China and given Beijing access, and a stake, in the Arctic. In April 2024, the two countries’ navies signed a cooperation agreement on search and rescue missions on the high seas.In September 2024, China participated in Russia’s largest naval manoeuvres in the post-cold war era, Ocean-2024, which were conducted in north Pacific and Arctic waters. The following month, Russian and Chinese coastguard vessels conducted their first joint patrol in the Arctic. Vance, therefore, has a point when he urges Greenland and Denmark to cut a deal with the US because the “island isn’t safe”. But this is hardly Denmark’s fault alone. The US airbase in Pituffik currently hosts some 200 American personnel — during the Cold War, the US maintained some seventeen installations on the island with 10,000 soldiers, according to Denmark’s foreign minister, Lars Lokke Rasmussen. Moreover, the 1951 Greenland Defence Agreement between Denmark and the United States and its amendment in 2004 grant Washington substantial rights in the island. This was further supplemented during the first Trump administration with a “Common Plan” to enhance cooperation between the US and Greenland, and even Project2025 merely recommends that “the next administration should pursue policies that enhance economic ties between the US and Greenland.”Yet, it is not just the United States that is now more concerned than ever that the Russia-China partnership has resulted in an increasingly military presence in the Arctic.Yet, it is not ...
