WW3 is over, oil prices are plummeting, inflation is dead, Daddy Trump is putting the world back together, including doing a trade deal with China and getting interest rates down, even if it means sacking the man who is in his way. And the UK smaller company sector has discovered the Bitcoin magic money tree and is bathing in the prospect of free money. What a time to be alive! What could possibly go wrong?

This week, Gareth and Jeremy spend some time discussing the new Bitcoin Treasury Company model being developed among a cohort of UK smaller companies. Is it magic money or a dangerous bubble?

Gareth also covers updates from Sanderson Design, Gear4Music and Vertu Motors.

Next week is jobs week in the US, and we will get inflation data for the Eurozone. Watch for a non-farm payroll number below 100,000, which the market is likely to take positively.

Brought to you by Progressive Equity.

This week, Jeremy and Gareth discuss the market reaction to Trump's potential intervention in the Israel-Iran conflict, as well as interest-rate "holds" from the US and UK in the face of ongoing inflationary pressure. Japan continues to confuse - and to present major risk - with high inflation and close-to-zero interest rates, while the US/Japan trade deal is still conspicuous by its absence.

Progressive client news focussed on one stock, Oxford Metrics, whose H1 results statement highlights H2 weighting along with a skew towards US academia - a market segment clearly under pressure from Trump's defunding of large chunks of US educational budgets. Smart Manufacturing growth will, over time, diversify the group away from these risks, but investors are worrying about the near-term.

Following a recent IPO, the UK now has its own version of the US-based Strategy (fka Microstrategy) - a "bitcoin treasury" business known as The Smarter Web Company. The stock has rocketed post its recent float, and Jeremy and Gareth discuss the fact that, from almost all bubbles and collapses, there are persistent changes, and some survivors...

Speaking of survivors, Thomas Moore's fund at Aberdeen has now moved to trading at a PREMIUM to its NAV - after a decade of discounts...and the fund is raising new capital.

Evidence of green shoots then, both in terms of micro-cap investor risk appetite, and investor perceptions of value at a steady and high-quality long term investment trust.

Next week looks quiet - US GDP and inflation data will allow Trump to blame "Too Late Jay" Jerome Powell (and maybe Joe Biden) although clearly events in the Middle East will be key.

This week, Jeremy and Gareth talk about the dramatic overnight events in Iran, as Israel's actions have led to spikes in the prices of oil and gold, but not driven the usual "flight to the dollar" in any meaningful way - the USD is trading at three-year lows. Does this signal a loss of status as a safe haven, or is it simply that investors expect the conflict to be contained and localised?

More broadly, we have seen the US / China trade deal being pieced together, although President Trump couldn't help himself launching some other tariff threats even as the China situation appears to be stabilising. Look for an interesting discussion next week about Jay Powell's competence if the FOMC dares to not lower rates...

On the UK front, Jeremy makes the point that the ongoing M&A departures are nowhere near to being replaced by IPOs - by a factor of 30:1, based on some work by Peel Hunt. UK stocks are disappearing at a steady (and worrying) rate - those who remain are clearly "resilient" as we discussed previously, and they're becoming more and more scarce....hopefully this scarcity makes them attractive - a positive sign for valuations among those not (yet) acquired by mainly American bidders.

We had Progressive client news from Gear4Music, who acquired some cut-price assets from a failed competitor, Idox, who saw 9% y/y growth in their order book in the H1 they reported, and Intuitive Investments Group who raised just under £10m to propel activity in Hui10, a business involved in modernising and streamlining the antiquated Chinese state lottery.

Next week we have UK inflation and a rate decision (likely no change), and the US Fed rate decision (likely no change but watch for Trump's response). Also, keep an eye on Japan - they have a rate decision on Monday and inflation data on Friday; hopefully no surprises, although as Jeremy reminds us, at some point Japan could make headlines again. In the meantime, we hope that the Middle East sees a degree of calm returning.

Brought to you by Progressive Equity.