WW3 is over, oil prices are plummeting, inflation is dead, Daddy Trump is putting the world back together, including doing a trade deal with China and getting interest rates down, even if it means sacking the man who is in his way. And the UK smaller company sector has discovered the Bitcoin magic money tree and is bathing in the prospect of free money. What a time to be alive! What could possibly go wrong?

This week, Gareth and Jeremy spend some time discussing the new Bitcoin Treasury Company model being developed among a cohort of UK smaller companies. Is it magic money or a dangerous bubble?

Gareth also covers updates from Sanderson Design, Gear4Music and Vertu Motors.

Next week is jobs week in the US, and we will get inflation data for the Eurozone. Watch for a non-farm payroll number below 100,000, which the market is likely to take positively.

Brought to you by Progressive Equity.

This week, Jeremy and Gareth discuss the market reaction to Trump's potential intervention in the Israel-Iran conflict, as well as interest-rate "holds" from the US and UK in the face of ongoing inflationary pressure. Japan continues to confuse - and to present major risk - with high inflation and close-to-zero interest rates, while the US/Japan trade deal is still conspicuous by its absence.

Progressive client news focussed on one stock, Oxford Metrics, whose H1 results statement highlights H2 weighting along with a skew towards US academia - a market segment clearly under pressure from Trump's defunding of large chunks of US educational budgets. Smart Manufacturing growth will, over time, diversify the group away from these risks, but investors are worrying about the near-term.

Following a recent IPO, the UK now has its own version of the US-based Strategy (fka Microstrategy) - a "bitcoin treasury" business known as The Smarter Web Company. The stock has rocketed post its recent float, and Jeremy and Gareth discuss the fact that, from almost all bubbles and collapses, there are persistent changes, and some survivors...

Speaking of survivors, Thomas Moore's fund at Aberdeen has now moved to trading at a PREMIUM to its NAV - after a decade of discounts...and the fund is raising new capital.

Evidence of green shoots then, both in terms of micro-cap investor risk appetite, and investor perceptions of value at a steady and high-quality long term investment trust.

Next week looks quiet - US GDP and inflation data will allow Trump to blame "Too Late Jay" Jerome Powell (and maybe Joe Biden) although clearly events in the Middle East will be key.

This week, Jeremy and Gareth talk about the dramatic overnight events in Iran, as Israel's actions have led to spikes in the prices of oil and gold, but not driven the usual "flight to the dollar" in any meaningful way - the USD is trading at three-year lows. Does this signal a loss of status as a safe haven, or is it simply that investors expect the conflict to be contained and localised?

More broadly, we have seen the US / China trade deal being pieced together, although President Trump couldn't help himself launching some other tariff threats even as the China situation appears to be stabilising. Look for an interesting discussion next week about Jay Powell's competence if the FOMC dares to not lower rates...

On the UK front, Jeremy makes the point that the ongoing M&A departures are nowhere near to being replaced by IPOs - by a factor of 30:1, based on some work by Peel Hunt. UK stocks are disappearing at a steady (and worrying) rate - those who remain are clearly "resilient" as we discussed previously, and they're becoming more and more scarce....hopefully this scarcity makes them attractive - a positive sign for valuations among those not (yet) acquired by mainly American bidders.

We had Progressive client news from Gear4Music, who acquired some cut-price assets from a failed competitor, Idox, who saw 9% y/y growth in their order book in the H1 they reported, and Intuitive Investments Group who raised just under £10m to propel activity in Hui10, a business involved in modernising and streamlining the antiquated Chinese state lottery.

Next week we have UK inflation and a rate decision (likely no change), and the US Fed rate decision (likely no change but watch for Trump's response). Also, keep an eye on Japan - they have a rate decision on Monday and inflation data on Friday; hopefully no surprises, although as Jeremy reminds us, at some point Japan could make headlines again. In the meantime, we hope that the Middle East sees a degree of calm returning.

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This week, Jeremy and Gareth and describe what felt like a more-normal few days, with signs of a slowing US economy and falling bond yields. This was suddenly upended by the public and bitter (and very rapid) falling apart of the Trump-Musk relationship. Musk's backing of Trump was at least partly predicated on promises of a smaller state, but Musk (and DOGE) have failed to deliver the meaningful cuts promised. Now we have Musk shouting from the sidelines about the unsustainability of the budget deficit, which could lead to downward pressure on the dollar, upward pressure on yields and increased expectations of inflation - hence buying of Gold.

The UK has had growth forecasts downgraded by the OECD, to levels well below the OBR (and presumably Rachel Reeves's) expectations - so the likelihood appears to be further tax increases and spending cuts. The Mansion House Accord and the Pensions Investment Review give some (but potentially morally questionable) impetus and cause for optimism - but Wise Technologies plans to move to a main US listing, and a pulled cobalt-related IPO bring us back to earth.

Progressive stocks mentioned include IG Design Group, tinyBuild, SDI, all with news, but most broadly relevant is Van Elle whose early-stage involvement in housebuilding projects is being delayed by building regulator logjams....alongside earlier news from MJ Gleeson this points to a more-cautious view on the recently-rosy prospects for housebuilders.

Next week is all about US data - non-farm payrolls, inflation data and sentiment from the University of Michigan...

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This week, Gareth and Jeremy continue their discussion about the bond market's predicament. Japan's Ministry of Finance thought that sending a questionnaire to its bond investors would resolve its problem. But it soon encountered another difficult auction, suggesting that its first step in acknowledging the problem was insufficient.

Meanwhile, Japan's manufacturing prowess is under attack from China, its biggest competitor and from the US, its largest customer. The fact that Japan holds over a trillion dollars of US Treasury debt is a card to consider in its trade talks with the US.

Meanwhile, Trump's tariffs have encountered a judicial roadblock, causing a sharp recovery in risk assets. However, this was not so helpful for bond markets, where investors had hoped that tariffs might plug some of the fiscal hole left by Trump's Big Beautiful Bill.

In the UK, Rachel Reeves has signalled her intention to term forward its debt, increasing her interest rate exposure but lowering her short-term funding costs. Additionally, the IMF is offering air cover for her to bend her unbendable fiscal rules. A treat not afforded to her predecessors. Watch out for the spending spigots to turn fully on.

The takeaway is that long-term global inflation expectations are out of the bottle, the bond market term premia hares are running, and there is a return to the old idea of outrunning the looming debt crisis. This raises the risk of monetary debasement, which should be beneficial for Bitcoin, gold, and (selectively) equities.

Gareth covers updates from Beeks, and Watkins Jones.

Looking ahead, it's jobs week in the US. We get EA inflation data and the ECB rate decision. Additionally, confirmation that the economy slowed sharply in Q1 could raise concerns about the potential for a recession in the US.

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This week, Gareth and Jeremy discuss Moody's downgrade of US debt, Donald's Big Beautiful Bill (yes, that is what it is called), and the bond vigilantes' work at the long end of the yield curve. Jeremy discusses Japan's special place in all this and wonders how the world's monetary authorities can put the long-term inflation genie back in the bottle.

In the UK, inflation and government borrowing were higher than expected, making it a bad week for Rachel Reeves. But at least we have rejoined the EU (well, agreed to agree with them about a few things).

Despite all this, the UK market remained in a decent mood with small and mid-cap stocks outperforming large-cap stocks.

Gareth discusses updates and results from Forterra, IDOX and SDI Group.

Next week, some US Q1 GDP data is widely expected to show a sharp decline in activity.

However, investors' main focus is likely to remain on the long end of the bond market and how to avoid the impact of FX and bond volatility.

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Gareth and Jeremy discuss the US-China trade deal and Donald's many other activities: investment advice, trade deals, a ceasefire between India and Pakistan, huge win/win deals in the Middle East, and a crackdown on big pharma.

However, although the market has round tripped from the lows of early April, there is lasting damage to financial market confidence from the weaker dollar and stubbornly higher long-term bond yields.

The Saudis traded lower oil prices for US weapons and AI chips to help it turn its energy to power AI data centres.

But, the probability of a US recession has reduced.

The UK economy grew faster than any other G7 economy in Q1, and the UK equity market continued to perform better.

Gareth discusses news from Progressive research clients: Idox announced an acquisition, Gamma Communications gave an AGM update, Vertu Motors released FY 2025 results, which talk of a good start to the year, Nexus Infrastructure released H1 results, which report on the housebuilding recovery progress, and Secure Trust Bank reported a good start to their new financial year.

Looking ahead, we have inflation data from the UK and Japan, both signalling increases, which looks like a particular challenge for Japan. We feel that they should take some advice on how Argentina has coped with its much greater inflation problem over the last 12 months!

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This week Jeremy and Gareth discuss a smorgasbord of newsflow... from trade deals to interest rate cuts (or lack of them) and the selection of Maro Itoje as captain of the Lions team.

UK stocks discussed include ZOO Digital and Van Elle, and Jeremy describes the divergent outcomes for Alpha Group and Argentex...two payments/FX trading platforms who have had their resilience tested in recent years, with wildly different results.

Next week will see UK unemployment and GDP data, with US retail sales, inflation and consumer sentiment... watch for an angry Trump.

Brought to you by Progressive Equity.