In this episode, hosts Ray Powell and Jim Carouso welcome back Zack Cooper, senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and professor at Princeton University, to examine how recent U.S. military strikes in Iran impact deterrence dynamics across the Indo-Pacific region.

Iran Strikes and China Deterrence

Cooper argues that U.S. strikes against Iran may actually strengthen deterrence against China by demonstrating American unpredictability. Chinese officials had reportedly viewed Trump as a "paper tiger" following trade negotiations, but the Iran strikes have forced Beijing to recalculate its assumptions about U.S. willingness to use force in a Taiwan crisis.

Alliance Management Under Pressure

The conversation explores growing tensions in U.S. Indo-Pacific alliances as the Trump administration links trade negotiations to security commitments. Cooper expresses concern that threatened tariffs and demands for increased defense spending could undermine alliance relationships, particularly with South Korea, Japan, and Australia.

Nuclear Proliferation Concerns

The panel discusses alarming implications for nuclear proliferation in the Indo-Pacific, with Cooper warning that recent events may accelerate desires for independent nuclear capabilities among regional allies. The setback to Iran's nuclear program paradoxically demonstrates both the risks and benefits of pursuing nuclear weapons.

Regional Defense Architecture

Cooper critically examines Eli Ratner's proposal for an Indo-Pacific defense pact (the "Squad" - U.S., Japan, Australia, Philippines), arguing that formal defense agreements may be premature given current political realities in allied capitals. He suggests focusing on operational cooperation and interoperability instead.

India-Pakistan Lessons

The recent India-Pakistan border conflict provides valuable insights for Indo-Pacific military planning, with Cooper noting that Indian air operations were largely successful despite Pakistani use of Chinese-supplied air defense systems.

Information Warfare Challenges

As chairman of the Open Technology Fund, Cooper discusses ongoing efforts to maintain internet freedom tools like Signal and VPN access in authoritarian countries, despite Trump administration attempts to shut down U.S. Agency for Global Media operations.

Strategic Implications

Cooper emphasizes that while Middle East conflicts may seem distant from Indo-Pacific concerns, they fundamentally shape how regional powers assess American resolve and commitment. The unpredictability doctrine may serve deterrence purposes, but creates significant challenges for alliance management and strategic planning.

👉 Follow Zack Cooper on X, @ZackCooper, and pick up a copy of his book Tides of Fortune: The Rise and Decline of Great Militaries

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In this episode, we interview Andrew Phelan, a China specialist with decades of business experience, to analyze Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese's week-long diplomatic visit to China. The discussion examines critical questions about Australia's economic dependence on China, security vulnerabilities, and the broader implications for Indo-Pacific stability.

Phelan asserts that no country has benefited more from China's rise than Australia. Since China's opening under Deng Xiaoping in the 1980s, Australia has experienced unprecedented economic growth, with China transforming from a closed economy similar to North Korea today into Australia's largest trading partner. This relationship has fundamentally underwritten Australia's wealth and sustained economic expansion without recession.

However, this prosperity comes with significant risks. Australia's economy, worth just over a trillion dollars, is dwarfed by China's economic might. Unrestricted Chinese foreign direct investment could result in Australia losing its economic independence entirely. The recent rejection of Chinese acquisition attempts highlights the tension between economic opportunity and national sovereignty.

The discussion reveals concerning patterns of technology transfer, where Western corporations pursuing quarterly profits inadvertently strengthen future competitors. This short-term thinking contrasts sharply with China's long-term strategic planning and subsidies.

Phelan also cites evidence of Chinese interference in Australian elections, including AI-based communications specifically targeting the Australian-Chinese community. Following the October 7 attacks in Gaza, for example, some speeches were manipulated using AI and distributed through Chinese social media platforms to influence vulnerable community members.

The relationship between China and Australia's Labor Party raises additional concerns. Victoria's former Premier Daniel Andrews maintained controversial close ties with China, including signing the only standalone Belt and Road Initiative agreement by any global jurisdiction. This led to new federal legislation preventing such unilateral agreements.

Australia's current defense capabilities pale compared to World War II preparations. Phelan says that today's "boutique defense force" of 60,000 personnel from a 25 million person population is nowhere near adequate for current strategic challenges.

The Pentagon's AUKUS review under Elbridge Colby reflects legitimate concerns about allied preparedness. Phelan believes the best way to avoid conflict is to be as well-prepared as possible, requiring clear commitments from allies facing an increasingly assertive China.

China's objective to distance the United States from its allies shows “patchy” success. While their soft power efforts remain “clumsy” and easily identifiable, institutional influence through organizations like the Australia-China Relations Institute demonstrates more subtle approaches.

Xi Jinping's global initiatives represent an alternative operating system for the world, seeking to make Chinese governance models the default globally. This constitutes “an existential challenge to democratic governance”, requiring sustained engagement and strategic clarity from democratic nations.

The episode reveals Australia's precarious position between economic prosperity and strategic security. As China's “continuous struggle” philosophy ensures ongoing pressure, Phelan says Australia must develop a greater strategic backbone while maintaining necessary economic relationships. The challenge extends beyond Australia to all Indo-Pacific democracies navigating similar dependencies in an increasingly complex geopolitical environment.

• Follow Andrew on X, @ajphelo
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In a very special episode, Philippine Secretary of National Defense Gilbert "Gibo" Teodoro sat down with co-host Ray Powell for an exclusive in-person interview at his Manila office, delivering insights into the Philippines' defense strategy to counter China's aggression in the West Philippine Sea.

Secretary Teodoro emphasized that defending the Philippines matters globally because maritime violations anywhere threaten the international order. "If we are to preserve an international order, imperfect as it is, then we should care if anyone's country, no matter how small, is violated," Teodoro stated. He noted that China's approach appears focused on weakening alliances between the United States and its partners.

The defense chief highlighted that multiple nations support the Philippines’ stand, including Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand, Canada, and European G7 countries, all facing similar challenges from Chinese gray zone aggression.

Secretary Teodoro outlined the Philippines' shift from its traditional post-invasion land defense to a proactive deterrent strategy called the Comprehensive Archipelagic Defense Concept. This multi-domain approach recognizes that modern conflicts begin with information warfare, cyber attacks, and hybrid operations before physical invasion.

The strategy aims to secure the Philippines' 80% water, 20% land territory under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, protecting fishing grounds from Chinese coast guard, maritime militia and fishing vessels that have violated Philippine maritime rights and severely degraded its traditional fishing areas.

The defense secretary discussed modernization efforts under the Re-Horizon 3 program, moving beyond the country’s outdated 15-year planning cycles. Key investments he is pursuing include:

- Strategic infrastructure and bases to fortify outer territorial boundaries

- Secure connectivity and domain awareness across 2 million square kilometers of maritime area

- Medium-range missile capabilities and multi-role fighters

- Hybrid warfare tools, including drones and unmanned systems

- Cognitive warfare capabilities to combat PRC disinformation

- Force structure expansion beyond the current 162,000 personnel for a country of over 120 million.

Teodoro addressed China's information warfare efforts, including attempts to censor “Food Delivery”, a West Philippine Sea documentary that recently won awards in New Zealand. He also discussed confrontational tabloid tactics by China Daily reporters at Singapore's Shangri-La Dialogue.

The interview revealed the significant evolution of Philippine-Japan defense cooperation, with both nations facing similar Chinese territorial challenges. Japan's proposed "one-theater concept" creates an operational convergence between the US Indo-Pacific Command, Japan, the Philippines, and Australia, as does the country’s recently approved Reciprocal Access Agreement with Japan.

Teodoro addressed the impact on Filipino fishermen excluded from traditional fishing grounds at Scarborough Shoal. China has no right to exclude anyone from these waters, the secretary emphasized, according to international law and the landmark 2016 Arbitral Tribunal ruling.

The defense chief noted how China's West Philippine Sea actions have become the primary catalyst for international convergence in opposition to Beijing, with countries recognizing that "if China can do it here, then other countries can do it in their own areas".

Teodoro observed that 90% of Filipinos distrust China due to current leadership's actions, suggesting Chinese leadership will face accountability for damaging its international standing and uniting its adversaries in opposition.

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