In this episode, hosts Ray Powell and Jim Carouso welcome back Zack Cooper, senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and professor at Princeton University, to examine how recent U.S. military strikes in Iran impact deterrence dynamics across the Indo-Pacific region.

Iran Strikes and China Deterrence

Cooper argues that U.S. strikes against Iran may actually strengthen deterrence against China by demonstrating American unpredictability. Chinese officials had reportedly viewed Trump as a "paper tiger" following trade negotiations, but the Iran strikes have forced Beijing to recalculate its assumptions about U.S. willingness to use force in a Taiwan crisis.

Alliance Management Under Pressure

The conversation explores growing tensions in U.S. Indo-Pacific alliances as the Trump administration links trade negotiations to security commitments. Cooper expresses concern that threatened tariffs and demands for increased defense spending could undermine alliance relationships, particularly with South Korea, Japan, and Australia.

Nuclear Proliferation Concerns

The panel discusses alarming implications for nuclear proliferation in the Indo-Pacific, with Cooper warning that recent events may accelerate desires for independent nuclear capabilities among regional allies. The setback to Iran's nuclear program paradoxically demonstrates both the risks and benefits of pursuing nuclear weapons.

Regional Defense Architecture

Cooper critically examines Eli Ratner's proposal for an Indo-Pacific defense pact (the "Squad" - U.S., Japan, Australia, Philippines), arguing that formal defense agreements may be premature given current political realities in allied capitals. He suggests focusing on operational cooperation and interoperability instead.

India-Pakistan Lessons

The recent India-Pakistan border conflict provides valuable insights for Indo-Pacific military planning, with Cooper noting that Indian air operations were largely successful despite Pakistani use of Chinese-supplied air defense systems.

Information Warfare Challenges

As chairman of the Open Technology Fund, Cooper discusses ongoing efforts to maintain internet freedom tools like Signal and VPN access in authoritarian countries, despite Trump administration attempts to shut down U.S. Agency for Global Media operations.

Strategic Implications

Cooper emphasizes that while Middle East conflicts may seem distant from Indo-Pacific concerns, they fundamentally shape how regional powers assess American resolve and commitment. The unpredictability doctrine may serve deterrence purposes, but creates significant challenges for alliance management and strategic planning.

👉 Follow Zack Cooper on X, @ZackCooper, and pick up a copy of his book Tides of Fortune: The Rise and Decline of Great Militaries

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In this episode, we interview Andrew Phelan, a China specialist with decades of business experience, to analyze Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese's week-long diplomatic visit to China. The discussion examines critical questions about Australia's economic dependence on China, security vulnerabilities, and the broader implications for Indo-Pacific stability.

Phelan asserts that no country has benefited more from China's rise than Australia. Since China's opening under Deng Xiaoping in the 1980s, Australia has experienced unprecedented economic growth, with China transforming from a closed economy similar to North Korea today into Australia's largest trading partner. This relationship has fundamentally underwritten Australia's wealth and sustained economic expansion without recession.

However, this prosperity comes with significant risks. Australia's economy, worth just over a trillion dollars, is dwarfed by China's economic might. Unrestricted Chinese foreign direct investment could result in Australia losing its economic independence entirely. The recent rejection of Chinese acquisition attempts highlights the tension between economic opportunity and national sovereignty.

The discussion reveals concerning patterns of technology transfer, where Western corporations pursuing quarterly profits inadvertently strengthen future competitors. This short-term thinking contrasts sharply with China's long-term strategic planning and subsidies.

Phelan also cites evidence of Chinese interference in Australian elections, including AI-based communications specifically targeting the Australian-Chinese community. Following the October 7 attacks in Gaza, for example, some speeches were manipulated using AI and distributed through Chinese social media platforms to influence vulnerable community members.

The relationship between China and Australia's Labor Party raises additional concerns. Victoria's former Premier Daniel Andrews maintained controversial close ties with China, including signing the only standalone Belt and Road Initiative agreement by any global jurisdiction. This led to new federal legislation preventing such unilateral agreements.

Australia's current defense capabilities pale compared to World War II preparations. Phelan says that today's "boutique defense force" of 60,000 personnel from a 25 million person population is nowhere near adequate for current strategic challenges.

The Pentagon's AUKUS review under Elbridge Colby reflects legitimate concerns about allied preparedness. Phelan believes the best way to avoid conflict is to be as well-prepared as possible, requiring clear commitments from allies facing an increasingly assertive China.

China's objective to distance the United States from its allies shows “patchy” success. While their soft power efforts remain “clumsy” and easily identifiable, institutional influence through organizations like the Australia-China Relations Institute demonstrates more subtle approaches.

Xi Jinping's global initiatives represent an alternative operating system for the world, seeking to make Chinese governance models the default globally. This constitutes “an existential challenge to democratic governance”, requiring sustained engagement and strategic clarity from democratic nations.

The episode reveals Australia's precarious position between economic prosperity and strategic security. As China's “continuous struggle” philosophy ensures ongoing pressure, Phelan says Australia must develop a greater strategic backbone while maintaining necessary economic relationships. The challenge extends beyond Australia to all Indo-Pacific democracies navigating similar dependencies in an increasingly complex geopolitical environment.

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In a very special episode, Philippine Secretary of National Defense Gilbert "Gibo" Teodoro sat down with co-host Ray Powell for an exclusive in-person interview at his Manila office, delivering insights into the Philippines' defense strategy to counter China's aggression in the West Philippine Sea.

Secretary Teodoro emphasized that defending the Philippines matters globally because maritime violations anywhere threaten the international order. "If we are to preserve an international order, imperfect as it is, then we should care if anyone's country, no matter how small, is violated," Teodoro stated. He noted that China's approach appears focused on weakening alliances between the United States and its partners.

The defense chief highlighted that multiple nations support the Philippines’ stand, including Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand, Canada, and European G7 countries, all facing similar challenges from Chinese gray zone aggression.

Secretary Teodoro outlined the Philippines' shift from its traditional post-invasion land defense to a proactive deterrent strategy called the Comprehensive Archipelagic Defense Concept. This multi-domain approach recognizes that modern conflicts begin with information warfare, cyber attacks, and hybrid operations before physical invasion.

The strategy aims to secure the Philippines' 80% water, 20% land territory under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, protecting fishing grounds from Chinese coast guard, maritime militia and fishing vessels that have violated Philippine maritime rights and severely degraded its traditional fishing areas.

The defense secretary discussed modernization efforts under the Re-Horizon 3 program, moving beyond the country’s outdated 15-year planning cycles. Key investments he is pursuing include:

- Strategic infrastructure and bases to fortify outer territorial boundaries

- Secure connectivity and domain awareness across 2 million square kilometers of maritime area

- Medium-range missile capabilities and multi-role fighters

- Hybrid warfare tools, including drones and unmanned systems

- Cognitive warfare capabilities to combat PRC disinformation

- Force structure expansion beyond the current 162,000 personnel for a country of over 120 million.

Teodoro addressed China's information warfare efforts, including attempts to censor “Food Delivery”, a West Philippine Sea documentary that recently won awards in New Zealand. He also discussed confrontational tabloid tactics by China Daily reporters at Singapore's Shangri-La Dialogue.

The interview revealed the significant evolution of Philippine-Japan defense cooperation, with both nations facing similar Chinese territorial challenges. Japan's proposed "one-theater concept" creates an operational convergence between the US Indo-Pacific Command, Japan, the Philippines, and Australia, as does the country’s recently approved Reciprocal Access Agreement with Japan.

Teodoro addressed the impact on Filipino fishermen excluded from traditional fishing grounds at Scarborough Shoal. China has no right to exclude anyone from these waters, the secretary emphasized, according to international law and the landmark 2016 Arbitral Tribunal ruling.

The defense chief noted how China's West Philippine Sea actions have become the primary catalyst for international convergence in opposition to Beijing, with countries recognizing that "if China can do it here, then other countries can do it in their own areas".

Teodoro observed that 90% of Filipinos distrust China due to current leadership's actions, suggesting Chinese leadership will face accountability for damaging its international standing and uniting its adversaries in opposition.

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In Ep. 87, hosts Ray Powell and Jim Carouso speak with Ambassador Pou Sothirak, a former Cambodian diplomat and current distinguished advisor to the Cambodian Center for Regional Studies, to unpack the complex issues facing Cambodia today. The discussion centers on the renewed border conflict with Thailand, the controversy surrounding the Ream Naval Base, and Cambodia's strategic navigation of its relationships with the United States and China.

Ambassador Sothirak provides historical context for the century-old border dispute, which has its origins in French colonial-era maps from 1907. He recounts the history of the conflict, including the International Court of Justice (ICJ) rulings in 1962 and 2013 that affirmed Cambodia's sovereignty over the Preah Vihear temple and its surrounding territory. The most recent clashes, which began in late May, are described as a "misunderstanding" at face value but are deeply entangled with issues of nationalism and domestic politics in both nations. The situation has been exacerbated by a political crisis in Thailand following a leaked phone call between the leaders of the two nations, which has brought bilateral relations to a low point. The Ambassador suggests a path forward involving third-party mediation to facilitate a truce and demilitarization of the border, followed by high-level diplomatic talks.

The conversation addresses widespread speculation that China's extensive support in upgrading the Ream Naval Base amounts to establishing a Chinese military outpost. Ambassador Sothirak dismisses this as a "myth," stating that Cambodia's constitution prohibits foreign military bases on its soil. He explains that Cambodia's collaboration with China is aimed at modernizing its own navy to safeguard its maritime security. However, he acknowledges the semi-permanent, rotating presence of Chinese ships and personnel at the base. He views the recent visit by the U.S. Secretary of Defense as a critical opportunity to dispel misconceptions and improve transparency, emphasizing that Cambodia must balance its ties between the two superpowers.

The episode explores Cambodia's foreign policy and its efforts to manage its relationships with both the U.S. and China. China is Cambodia's largest donor and source of foreign direct investment, with its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) funding essential infrastructure like power plants and highways. At the same time, the United States is Cambodia's biggest export market. Ambassador Sothirak expresses concern that potential U.S. tariffs, intended to pressure China, could inadvertently harm Cambodia's economy and push it further into China's orbit. He argues that for a small country like Cambodia, maintaining engagement with both the U.S. and China is essential for its development and sovereignty.

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Pulitzer Prize-winning investigative journalist Ian Urbina returns to “Why Should We Care About the Indo-Pacific” to preview Season 2 of his acclaimed Outlaw Ocean podcast, exposing the hidden world of human rights and environmental abuses on the high seas—from brutal labor conditions on distant-water fishing vessels to coercive processing centers in China, India, and beyond.

Urbina, founder and director of the Outlaw Ocean Project, dives into the maritime underworld and examines what’s changed—and what remains unchanged—since his first appearance on the pod. The conversation unfolds in two parts:

1. China’s Distant-Water Fleet & At-Sea Abuses

- Fleet scale and state ties: China’s distant-water fleet dwarfs all others, with estimates ranging from 2,700 to 17,000 vessels; Urbina’s team calculated about 6,500 ships, one-third of which have direct state involvement.

- Illegal fishing and geopolitical power: Chinese longliners and squid jiggers routinely engage in illegal, unreported, and unregulated (IUU) fishing—invading marine protected areas, overfishing, and crossing exclusive economic zones—thereby gaining economic advantage and shaping “facts on the water” to support territorial claims.

- Life on board squid jiggers: These industrial vessels use hundreds of bright lights and metal arms to jig for squid. Crews of 30–50 often endure two- to three-year contracts at sea with no shore leave, cramped and unsanitary conditions, malnutrition, and no Wi-Fi. Laborers—initially foreign but increasingly rural Chinese—face debt bondage, violence, passport confiscation, and forced labor.

2. On-Land Processing & Global Supply Chains

- Scope expansion: Season 2 follows seafood from ship to shore, uncovering forced labor in processing plants across China, India, and along the North Korean border.

- Chinese processing centers: Utilizing open-source intelligence and encrypted Chinese platforms, Urbina’s team documented state-orchestrated labor transfers of Uyghurs from Xinjiang to coastal seafood factories—facilities that supply major global buyers, including U.S. government cafeterias. Workers face locked compounds, surveillance, and coercion akin to modern slavery.

- North Korean laborers: Thousands of North Korean women are trafficked into Chinese factories under government vetting. Held in locked dorms and subjected to widespread sexual abuse and forced overtime, these women are trapped by debts owed to smugglers and extortion from border officials.

- Indian shrimp processing: A whistleblower’s 50,000-page dossier exposed debt bondage, physical confinement, and antibiotic-tainted shrimp at processing plants in India. As Western buyers migrated from Thailand to India, the same labor abuses reemerged, threatening food safety and ethical sourcing.

By weaving narrative storytelling with hard data and firsthand testimony, this episode underscores the urgent need for transparent supply chains and international enforcement to protect vulnerable workers and marine ecosystems. Visit TheOutlawOcean.com for updates, subscribe to the newsletter, and tune into Season 2 for deep-dive investigations that track seafood—and human exploitation—from ocean depths to dinner tables.

In this episode, hosts Ray Powell and Jim Carouso interview Professor Gordon Flake, CEO of the Perth USAsia Centre, about South Korea's political transformation following six months of unprecedented turmoil.

The discussion centers on South Korea's remarkable democratic resilience after former President Yoon Suk-yeol's shocking martial law declaration in December 2024, which triggered his impeachment and removal from office, and Lee Jae-myeong's subsequent election victory. Flake emphasizes that despite the chaos—including four different acting presidents—South Korea's institutions held firm, demonstrating the strength of its democracy.

The new president faces immediate pressure from Trump administration tariffs affecting Korean exports, with the economy shrinking in the first quarter and auto sales to the US down significantly. Flake warns against conflating trade negotiations with alliance burden-sharing discussions.

Lee Jae-myeong has already engaged with President Trump and Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba, signaling continuity in South Korea's internationalist approach despite his progressive background. The episode explores Korea's potential participation in regional frameworks like Quad-Plus and the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership.

Tensions are escalating in the Yellow Sea's Provisional Measures Zone, where China has installed aquaculture facilities without coordination with Seoul. This represents a new kinetic challenge similar to South China Sea disputes.

Flake highlights opportunities for US-Korea naval cooperation, noting Korean shipbuilders like Hanwha Ocean's acquisition of Philadelphia shipyard and increased stakes in Australian defense contractor Austal.

Flake predicts Lee's first 100 days will prioritize economic growth over progressive social policies due to external pressures. His attendance at the G7 meeting represents crucial engagement with like-minded democracies amid regional uncertainty (this episode was recorded before President Lee elected not to attend the G7).

The episode provides essential insights into how South Korea's democratic institutions weathered the crisis, while positioning the country as a consequential middle power navigating complex US-China competition and regional security challenges.

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In this episode, hosts Ray Powell and Jim Carouso explore the critical concept of techno-nationalism with expert Alex Capri, author of "Techno-Nationalism: How It's Reshaping Trade, Geopolitics and Society."

Techno-nationalism represents the intersection of technology, national security, and economic power in the Fourth Industrial Revolution. Capri explains how nation-states are leveraging 12 key power-multiplier technologies--including semiconductors, artificial intelligence, quantum science, hypersonics, biotech, and advanced manufacturing--to maintain competitive advantages and protect national interests.

The discussion reveals how China's strategic approach to technology development caught the West off-guard. While Western companies focused on trade liberalization and efficiency, China implemented long-term techno-nationalist policies, including preemptive decoupling in critical sectors like telecommunications and banking. The Great Firewall, established in the mid-1990s, was an early indicator of China's protective stance toward strategic technologies.

Capri outlines the six core elements of modern techno-nationalism:

1️⃣ Weaponization of supply chains through export controls and investment restrictions

2️⃣ Strategic decoupling from potential adversaries

3️⃣ Offshoring reversal via reshoring and friend-shoring initiatives

4️⃣ Innovation mercantilism through government industrial policy

5️⃣ Tech diplomacy for strategic alliance building

6️⃣ Hybrid Cold War dynamics amid ongoing commercial activity

The Huawei 5G ban exemplifies techno-nationalist concerns about critical infrastructure security. The company's global telecommunications footprint, built through massive state support, raised red flags about potential surveillance capabilities. Similarly, TikTok represents the dual-use nature of modern technology—commercially popular but potentially strategically valuable for data collection and analysis.

Despite China's advances, the US maintains advantages in university systems, defense technology, and innovation ecosystems. However, success requires strategic partnerships with allies, particularly in semiconductor manufacturing and critical mineral supply chains. The conversation highlights concerns about policy continuity across political administrations and the importance of sustained investment in STEM education and public-private partnerships.

Techno-nationalism isn't just about US-China competition—it's a global phenomenon affecting all nation-states as they navigate security, economic stability, and technological sovereignty in an interconnected world.

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Hosts Ray Powell and Jim Carouso interview Congressman Don Bacon (R-NE), a retired Air Force Brigadier General with 29 years of military service. Rep. Bacon serves on the House Armed Services Committee and brings unique insights from both military leadership and congressional oversight.

Congressman Bacon is concerned that America is spending just 2.9% of GDP on defense—the lowest level since 1940, before Pearl Harbor. He argues for increasing defense spending to 4% of GDP, approximately $150 billion more annually, to address critical modernization needs including nuclear triad upgrades, fifth and sixth-generation fighters, attack submarines, and improved military quality of life.

The discussion highlights America's innovation deficit, particularly in drone technology and electronic warfare, where Ukrainian forces have outpaced U.S. capabilities. Bacon emphasizes how Ukraine's recent destruction of 41 Russian strategic bombers using $5,000 drones demonstrates the power of cost-effective innovation over expensive legacy systems.

Bacon addresses growing tensions within the Republican Party between traditional alliance supporters and isolationist factions, drawing parallels to 1930s isolationism. He warns that current diplomatic approaches risk alienating key allies, citing business challenges with Canada and European partners. The congressman advocates for maintaining America's role as "leader of the free world" while acknowledging the need for burden-sharing.

With China potentially spending $700 billion on defense (despite claiming $170 billion), Bacon emphasizes the urgency of military modernization focused on long-range precision weapons, air and missile defense, and drone swarm technology. He stresses that deterring China requires immediate weapons deliveries to Taiwan, noting billions in delayed military aid.

Two years of continuing resolutions have hampered military readiness and prevented new program starts. Bacon explains the bipartisan nature of the Armed Services Committee while criticizing broader congressional dysfunction that prioritizes partisan politics over national security.

Bacon highlights critical nuclear deterrent gaps, including 50-year-old Minuteman III ICBMs that cannot be extended, aging B-2 bombers with outdated stealth technology, and Ohio-class submarines reaching end-of-life. With Strategic Air Command (SAC) Headquarters located at Offutt Air Force Base in his district, he argues these systems are essential for countering both China and Russia.

Despite being a deficit hawk concerned about the $36 trillion national debt, Bacon argues that defense spending increases are necessary while addressing mandatory spending on Social Security and Medicare, which comprises 73% of federal spending.

This episode provides essential insights into America's defense readiness challenges, alliance management complexities, and the urgent need for strategic clarity in confronting great power competition in the Indo-Pacific region.

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