We thought we’d get a little political on this week’s show. Are we serving up a bubble that was a landslide UK election, or is the new government trouble a bubble? And we want to deconstruct Will’s Pessimism Paradox as it applies to the place we most often seen bubbles, in high finance where the less certain the outcomes to higher the markets go.

For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com

You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/

More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com

(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)

Deconstructing Economic Pessimism in the Wake of a New Government

In this episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page discuss the political and economic landscape in the UK following the first 100 days of a new government. They analyze the concept of political and economic bubbles, questioning whether pessimism dominates current narratives. The discussion spans issues like the impact of the cloud on GDP measurement, tax policies, and the importance of attracting talent over traditional economic metrics. The hosts also delve into the role of economists’ outlooks during different economic conditions. The episode underscores the significance of focusing on new strategies and the long-term impact of political decisions, highlighting the government and economic system's current challenges.

00:00 Introduction to Bubble Trouble

00:44 Part One

00:50 Analyzing the New Government's First 100 Days

03:56 The Pessimism Paradox Explained

14:13 Debating Economic Growth and GDP

18:59 Part Two

19:19 Tax Policies and Economic Challenges

25:23 The Talent Competition and Immigration

28:57 Reflections on Political Labels and Strategy

32:47 Conclusion and Listener Engagement

33:25 Credits

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We always try to flag the smoke signals of mischievous market behaviour that gets society and stock portfolios into trouble. Are we about to get fooled again by the hype and hysteria surrounding the poster child Open AI? Or maybe, just maybe, it’s worth joining us for 30 minutes to find what really sits behind a 150bn valuation and ask whether beauty is in the eye of the beholder?

For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com

You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/

More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com

(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)

In the latest episode of Bubble Trouble, co-hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page dive into the hype surrounding OpenAI, now valued at $150 billion. They examine the risks of market hype and hysteria behind this soaring valuation, discussing the broader implications for society and the tech industry. The episode explores the nuances of company valuations, comparing public versus private market insights and the lack of transparency in the private sector. With references to past tech bubbles, the hosts analyze the potential conflicts of interest among investors and question the sustainability of current trajectories in tech valuations. As they await the next bubble to burst, Kramer and Page emphasize the importance of scrutinizing underlying business fundamentals in an era of outsized market valuations.

00:00 Introduction

00:49 Part One

01:04 The AI Hype and OpenAI's Valuation

03:25 Understanding Company Valuations

06:32 Public vs Private Market Valuations

10:56 The Transparency Challenge in Tech

15:26 Reflecting on Past Episodes and Lessons

21:12 Part Two

21:49 The Role of Central Banks in Market Bubbles

25:32 Exploring OpenAI's Valuation and Market Dynamics

36:09 Smoke Signals and Future Predictions

43:46 Credits

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This week we speak with Bill Raduchel, who has served as a high-level executive and strategic adviser for organizations such as Sun Microsystems, AOL Time Warner, Xerox, McGraw-Hill, and the Salvation Army. Over half a century working with systems, software, and networks, he has remained at the forefront of the technology revolution in media, education, and corporate governance including recognition at Sun as CIO of the Year and the top CFO in the computer industry and at AOL as CTO of the year. He holds more than fifty issued patents as well as a PhD in econometrics from Harvard, where he taught for five years with John Kenneth Galbraith. He has been writing software in some form since he turned fifteen years old in 1961. He is also the author of The New Technology State. This book is about society—how it has changed and what technology is enabling us to do to ourselves. [Repeat from April, 2024]

For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com

You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/

More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com

(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)

The New Technology State: Redefining the Tech and Government Landscape

00:00 Welcome to Bubble Trouble: A Skeptical Conversation

00:46 A Journey Through Tech and Economics

06:23 The Evolution of Technology and Its Impact on Economics

08:02 The Writing Process and Insights into Bill's Book

11:21 Exploring the New Technology State and Government Challenges

17:43 The Intricacies of Tech Talent and Government Staffing

19:53 Tech Debt and the Challenges of Modernization

25:55 The Global Tech Landscape: Government and Private Sector Dynamics

25:55 Wrapping Up Part One and Teasing Part Two

25:55 Simplifying UK Government Websites: A Double-Edged Sword

25:55 The Dangers of Centralization and Cybersecurity

26:10 Big Tech, Government, and the Quest for Regulation

27:59 The Talent Gap in Government and Tech Regulation Challenges

29:15 Innovative Solutions andthe Power of Decentralization

30:15 The Role of Startups in Tech Innovation and Employee Motivation

31:59 Google's Management Revolution: Lessons in Innovation

34:45 The Complexities of Regulating Big Tech

40:05 Navigating the Future of AI and Government Regulation

42:19 Economics, Education, and the Future Workforce

44:56 Smoke Signals: Warning Signs in Tech and Regulation

50:06 Credits

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.