We thought we’d get a little political on this week’s show. Are we serving up a bubble that was a landslide UK election, or is the new government trouble a bubble? And we want to deconstruct Will’s Pessimism Paradox as it applies to the place we most often seen bubbles, in high finance where the less certain the outcomes to higher the markets go.

For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com

You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/

More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com

(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)

Deconstructing Economic Pessimism in the Wake of a New Government

In this episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page discuss the political and economic landscape in the UK following the first 100 days of a new government. They analyze the concept of political and economic bubbles, questioning whether pessimism dominates current narratives. The discussion spans issues like the impact of the cloud on GDP measurement, tax policies, and the importance of attracting talent over traditional economic metrics. The hosts also delve into the role of economists’ outlooks during different economic conditions. The episode underscores the significance of focusing on new strategies and the long-term impact of political decisions, highlighting the government and economic system's current challenges.

00:00 Introduction to Bubble Trouble

00:44 Part One

00:50 Analyzing the New Government's First 100 Days

03:56 The Pessimism Paradox Explained

14:13 Debating Economic Growth and GDP

18:59 Part Two

19:19 Tax Policies and Economic Challenges

25:23 The Talent Competition and Immigration

28:57 Reflections on Political Labels and Strategy

32:47 Conclusion and Listener Engagement

33:25 Credits

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We always try to flag the smoke signals of mischievous market behaviour that gets society and stock portfolios into trouble. Are we about to get fooled again by the hype and hysteria surrounding the poster child Open AI? Or maybe, just maybe, it’s worth joining us for 30 minutes to find what really sits behind a 150bn valuation and ask whether beauty is in the eye of the beholder?

For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com

You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/

More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com

(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)

In the latest episode of Bubble Trouble, co-hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page dive into the hype surrounding OpenAI, now valued at $150 billion. They examine the risks of market hype and hysteria behind this soaring valuation, discussing the broader implications for society and the tech industry. The episode explores the nuances of company valuations, comparing public versus private market insights and the lack of transparency in the private sector. With references to past tech bubbles, the hosts analyze the potential conflicts of interest among investors and question the sustainability of current trajectories in tech valuations. As they await the next bubble to burst, Kramer and Page emphasize the importance of scrutinizing underlying business fundamentals in an era of outsized market valuations.

00:00 Introduction

00:49 Part One

01:04 The AI Hype and OpenAI's Valuation

03:25 Understanding Company Valuations

06:32 Public vs Private Market Valuations

10:56 The Transparency Challenge in Tech

15:26 Reflecting on Past Episodes and Lessons

21:12 Part Two

21:49 The Role of Central Banks in Market Bubbles

25:32 Exploring OpenAI's Valuation and Market Dynamics

36:09 Smoke Signals and Future Predictions

43:46 Credits

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This week we speak with Bill Raduchel, who has served as a high-level executive and strategic adviser for organizations such as Sun Microsystems, AOL Time Warner, Xerox, McGraw-Hill, and the Salvation Army. Over half a century working with systems, software, and networks, he has remained at the forefront of the technology revolution in media, education, and corporate governance including recognition at Sun as CIO of the Year and the top CFO in the computer industry and at AOL as CTO of the year. He holds more than fifty issued patents as well as a PhD in econometrics from Harvard, where he taught for five years with John Kenneth Galbraith. He has been writing software in some form since he turned fifteen years old in 1961. He is also the author of The New Technology State. This book is about society—how it has changed and what technology is enabling us to do to ourselves. [Repeat from April, 2024]

For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com

You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/

More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com

(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)

The New Technology State: Redefining the Tech and Government Landscape

00:00 Welcome to Bubble Trouble: A Skeptical Conversation

00:46 A Journey Through Tech and Economics

06:23 The Evolution of Technology and Its Impact on Economics

08:02 The Writing Process and Insights into Bill's Book

11:21 Exploring the New Technology State and Government Challenges

17:43 The Intricacies of Tech Talent and Government Staffing

19:53 Tech Debt and the Challenges of Modernization

25:55 The Global Tech Landscape: Government and Private Sector Dynamics

25:55 Wrapping Up Part One and Teasing Part Two

25:55 Simplifying UK Government Websites: A Double-Edged Sword

25:55 The Dangers of Centralization and Cybersecurity

26:10 Big Tech, Government, and the Quest for Regulation

27:59 The Talent Gap in Government and Tech Regulation Challenges

29:15 Innovative Solutions andthe Power of Decentralization

30:15 The Role of Startups in Tech Innovation and Employee Motivation

31:59 Google's Management Revolution: Lessons in Innovation

34:45 The Complexities of Regulating Big Tech

40:05 Navigating the Future of AI and Government Regulation

42:19 Economics, Education, and the Future Workforce

44:56 Smoke Signals: Warning Signs in Tech and Regulation

50:06 Credits

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One of the first casualties of the AI race may be lawyers, and that’s where we go this week with Damien Riehl who is at the front line of disrupting the legal profession. Law without lawyers? Really? Are we moving from if to when this tipping point becomes reality.

• Damien's company: https://vlex.com/vincent-ai
• Damien's TED Talk: https://www.ted.com/talks/damien_riehl_why_all_melodies_should_be_free_for_musicians_to_use
• All The Music: https://allthemusic.info/
• All the Patents: http://allthepatents.info/

For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com

You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/

More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com

(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)

The AI Revolution in Law: Disrupting and Democratizing Legal Services

In this episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page delve into the disruptive potential of AI in the legal profession with guest Damien Rio from vLex. The discussion explores the transformative impact of AI on access to legal services, the operational overhaul of legal tasks through large language models, and the future implications for lawyers, courts, and clients. Damien shares insights on his groundbreaking work in automating legal processes, addressing the challenges of legal backlog, and the potential for AI to democratize access to law worldwide. The episode also touches on the impact of AI on litigation strategies, private versus public legal data, and the future landscape of legal arbitration.

00:00 Introduction and Guest Welcome

00:44 Part One

00:52 Damien's Background and TED Talk

01:30 Part Two

01:30 Introduction to V Lex

02:30 The Role of AI in Legal Research

03:41 Disrupting the Legal Profession

07:54 Democratizing Access to Law

09:13 Challenges and Opportunities in Legal Tech

17:59 AI's Impact on Legal Disputes

23:58 The Role of Non-Lawyers in Legal Services

25:28 Democratizing Access to Law

25:58 Part Two

26:08 Economic Impacts of Legal Tech

26:59 Jevons Paradox and Legal Work

28:35 AI in the Judicial System

34:55 Global Implications of Legal Tech

38:18 AI's Limitations and Future in Law

46:45 Copyright and Patent Innovations

48:28 Conclusion and Future Prospects

49:12 Credits

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Today we’ve got a page turner…not that Page, our co-presenter…but a book that brings the AI battle to life: Supremacy: AI, ChatGPT and the Race That Will Change the World, Written by our guest, Parmy Olson. Buckle up as it's going to be a wild ride.

For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com

You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/

More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com

(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)

AI Supremacy and Ethical Dilemmas: A Conversation with Parmy Olson

In this episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page sit down with Bloomberg columnist and AI expert, Parmy Olson, to discuss her new book, 'Supremacy: AI, ChatGPT, and the Race that Will Change the World.' The conversation covers the ethical challenges and regulatory gaps in the AI industry, the role of big tech corporations in AI development, and the societal impact of AI on various sectors including healthcare, education, and law. Olson also shares insights on the bias and unintended consequences of AI technology, the psychology of tech innovators, and the future prospects for the technology.

00:00 Introduction

00:51 Meet the Guest: Parme Olson

01:08 Parmy Olson's Journey in Tech Journalism

02:25 The Fascination with Silicon Valley

03:26 The Metaverse Debate

04:16 Investigative Journalism in Tech

08:05 The AI Hype: Reality or Exaggeration?

10:57 The Race for AI Supremacy

14:29 Unintended Consequences of AI

20:18 The Ethics of AI Development

22:55 Closing Thoughts on AI and Tech

24:49 Part Two

25:23 The Competitive Landscape of AI

26:07 The Shift from Openness to Secrecy

27:42 Meta's Approach to Open Source AI

28:55 The Role of Open Source in Tech Development

30:57 The Allure of High Salaries in AI

31:09 Capitalism and AI: A Cautionary Tale

31:55 The Distinction Between Business and Markets

33:49 AI's Potential in Public Services

36:49 The Future of Law with AI

41:24 The Psychology of Tech Companies

48:06 The Bubble and Reality of AI

49:38 The Future of AI and Human Roles

51:47 Conclusion and Final Thoughts

52:17 Credits

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We’re back from summer break and we want to revisit some past pods as they get dragged into the current of current events, making our predictions as good - or even better - than the AI led herd. Today we’ve got a slew of stories to unpack, from AI Fakes and our podcast with the now-under-threat CEO of Boomy, the unwinding of the greatest money making machine you never heard of, and in Part Two revisiting our Ticketmaster / Live Nation show and the current fiasco of dynamic pricing for Oasis tickets.

For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com

You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/

More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com

(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)

In this episode of 'Bubble Trouble,' hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page dive into two major topics affecting today's financial and entertainment markets. They discuss the recent fraudulent activities surrounding AI-generated music streams, detailing the $10 million scam involving fake fans and manipulated royalties. Moving on, they shed light on the Oasis ticketing debacle, where surge pricing and market manipulation led to skyrocketing ticket prices and public outcry. Throughout the episode, they revisit past discussions, particularly focusing on market turbulence and the intricacies of carry trades. The hosts promise more exciting content and insights into market dynamics as they kick off their autumn season.

00:00 Introduction and Welcome Back

01:08 Part One

01:33 Reflecting on Past Episodes

02:11 Summer Break and Market Turbulence

03:42 Understanding Carry Trades

09:46 Nvidia's Market Impact

13:07 AI Music Fraud Scandal

23:41 Part Two

23:41 Oasis Ticket Fiasco

24:59 Ticket Demand and Dynamic Pricing

26:30 Surge Pricing vs. Dynamic Pricing

30:58 The Role of Ticketmaster and Market Manipulation

36:03 Potential Solutions and Future Outlook

43:07 Concluding Thoughts and Wrap-Up

43:48 Credits

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This week we’re going to keep on pricking bubbles with a fellow cynic of the sycophants and stenographers. Here to help us is David Trainer of New Constructs, whose company makes “robo-adjustments” to the reported accounts of 1000s of listed companies and tries to unearth the real financials behind the content marketing from company investor relations teams.

For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com

You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/

More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com

(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)

In this episode of Bubble Trouble, guest David Trainor, the founder of New Constructs, delves into his background in economics and statistics, his time at Credit Suisse, and his perspective on market bubbles and financial accountability. The discussion ranges from the detrimental effects of rapid, superficial analysis and reporting pervasive in today's investment industry, to the importance of rigorous fundamental analysis in discerning true business value. The conversation also touches on companies' strategic overstatement of profits, the ill-effects of unchecked capital allocation, and the role of artificial intelligence in future financial analytics. As the founder of New Constructs, David highlights how his company is helping investors uncover the real financial situation behind companies' reported accounts.

00:00 Introduction

00:57 Part One

01:02 Guest Introduction: David Trainor

01:26 Understanding New Constructs

02:22 The Cynicism in Wall Street

03:02 David's Backstory and the Tech Bubble

04:11 The Role of Accounting in Business

05:37 The Reality of Wall Street

07:42 The Boy Who Cried Wolf: A Market Perspective

08:27 The Intentionality of Market Bubbles

15:44 The Impact of Algorithmic Trading

18:28 The Difference Between Investing and Speculating

23:49 The Challenge of Limited Company Disclosure

26:12 Part Two

27:34 Discussing the Spectrum of Corporate Ethics

27:42 Highlighting Notorious Corporate Scandals

28:05 Elon Musk: Genius or Snake Oil Salesman?

28:46 The Reality of Earnings Distortion

29:09 The Unsettling Truth About CFOs and Wall Street Analysts

29:40 The Role of Investor Relations Firms

30:37 The Problem with Superficial Analysis

33:43 The Art of Investing: A Touchy Feely Approach

35:55 The Role of AI in the Future of Financial Analysis

47:18 The Dangers of Overstating Profits and Zombie Stocks

50:57 Closing Thoughts and Future Predictions

50:59 Credits

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So let's look forward and prepare you for the next big sexy blockbuster tech IPO, you’ve read all about it - that’s right. Reddit is going to ring the bell.

For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com

You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/

More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com

(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)

Reddit's IPO Adventure: A Deep Dive into Valuations, Trends, and Future Prospects

In this episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page dissect Reddit's impending IPO, examining its valuation, user base, and revenue streams. The podcast begins with a discussion on the evolution of Reddit and its business model, focusing on the challenges it faces as a business primarily driven by advertising revenue in a competitive digital advertising landscape. Kramer and Page delve into the nuances of Reddit's user engagement and its niche position in the internet culture, juxtaposing it against giants like Meta and Google. They critically analyze the hype surrounding tech IPOs, emphasizing Reddit's $800 million revenue and its struggle to become profitable amidst a sprawling digital advertising world. The episode also covers the broader implications of down rounds and the valuation bubbles that tech companies often face. Through expert insights and a candid conversation, the episode offers a comprehensive view on Reddit's IPO, the tech industry's valuation practices, and what the future holds for user-generated content platforms.

00:00 Welcome to Bubble Trouble: DeepFakes and Bubbles

01:02 Part One

01:06 The Fascinating Shift from Hong Kong to Singapore

02:52 Reddit's Upcoming IPO: A Deep Dive

03:25 Exploring Reddit's Niche and Financials

06:04 The Cultural Impact and Controversies of Reddit

08:58 Reddit IPO Strategies and User Dynamics

10:43 Inside Reddit: Culture, Compliance, and Future Prospects

16:00 Part Two

16:00 South by Southwest Festival Insights

20:04 Back to Reddit: IPO Details and Expectations

21:22 Technical Difficulties and Starting Off

21:24 Exploring Down Rounds: A Deep Dive

23:48 The Reality of Valuations and Market Corrections

24:42 Tech Companies' Valuations Post-Pandemic

25:41 Reddit's Revenue Diversification and Data Deals

27:15 The Creator Economy: Expectations vs. Reality

29:48 Reddit's IPO: A Case Study in Market Dynamics

34:49 Smoke Signals for Future IPOs

38:21 Reflecting on Reddit and the IPO Landscape

40:20 Credits

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