Changing Higher Ed

By: Dr. Drumm McNaughton
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  • Summary

  • Changing Higher Ed is dedicated to helping higher education leaders improve their institutions. We offer the latest in higher ed news and insights from top experts in higher education who share their perspectives on how you can grow your institution. Host Dr. Drumm McNaughton is a top higher education consultant, renowned leader, and pioneer in strategic management systems and leadership boards. He's one of a select group with executive leadership experience in academe, nonprofits, government, and business.
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Economics Management
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Episodes
  • Higher Ed Enrollment Crisis—Strategic Solutions and Expert Analysis

    Higher Ed Enrollment Crisis—Strategic Solutions and Expert Analysis
    Jan 14 2025
    Higher Education Enrollment Decline 2024-2040: You Can’t Recruit Your Way Out of a Declining Market The enrollment cliff is no longer a distant threat—it’s here, and institutions must act decisively to adapt. In this episode of Changing Higher Ed, Dr. Drumm McNaughton hosts Bill Conley and Bob Massa of Enrollment Intelligence Now to explore the demographic shifts, financial realities, and strategic imperatives reshaping higher education. With over 80 years of combined experience from institutions including Johns Hopkins, Bucknell, Dickinson College, and Columbia University, these enrollment experts provide insights into the demographic and enrollment decline. The latest Western Interstate Commission on Higher Education (WICHE) report projects significant declines in high school graduates, signaling major challenges for higher education institutions. After peaking at 3.9 million graduates in 2025, numbers will decline to 3.6 million by 2030 and below 3.4 million by 2040—a 13% drop over 15 years. Five states (California, Illinois, Michigan, New York, and Pennsylvania) will account for over 75% of this nationwide decline. Key Demographic Shifts (2025-2040) White student population: 26% decrease (1.6M to 1.2M)Hispanic student population: 16% increase (940K to 1.1M)Black student population: 22% decreaseAsian student population: 10% decreaseGrowing gender gap: 2025 projection shows 52% female vs. 42% male degree holders Market Segmentation Impact Elite/Selective Institutions (Minimal impact) Institutions with <15% admission rates and strong endowmentsMajor public flagships remain stable Mid-Tier Institutions (Highest risk) Weakening admission ratesHigh discount rates (60-70%)Particularly vulnerable in Midwest and Northeast Open Enrollment/Community Colleges Significant enrollment pressurePost-COVID challengesOverhead cost struggles Financial Reality Current average net price ($16,500/year) is actually lower than in 2006 ($19,000/year in 2024 dollars), but institutions struggle to effectively communicate this value proposition. Strategic Solutions Target 36 million adults without degreesImplement academic realignment and program prioritizationDevelop flexible scheduling and dual enrollment programsConsider three-year degree programsFocus on career outcomes and practical skill developmentRight-size operations to sustainable levelsMake strategic cuts in personnel and programsShift messaging beyond traditional "liberal arts" branding Three Takeaways for University Presidents, Boards, and Enrollment Executives Be Realistic: Recruitment alone cannot solve systemic enrollment declines. Institutions must analyze their unique situations and focus on actionable data. Leaders should localize their strategies to fit regional contexts, rather than relying on generalized solutions. "Don't think that you can recruit your way out of a declining market." Focus on Strengths: Differentiate your institution by leaning into what it does best. This involves identifying areas where your institution has a competitive advantage and leveraging them to stand out. Trim inefficiencies and focus resources on high-value programs and initiatives. Act Decisively and Proactively: Waiting to make necessary adjustments only exacerbates challenges. Institutions must take bold steps to ensure long-term sustainability, including program prioritization, exploring strategic partnerships, and right-sizing budgets and staffing levels. "Shrinking is going to be painful, but it's less painful than closing." As emphasized by Dr. McNaughton, citing Jack Welch: "If the rate of change outside your institution is greater than the rate of change inside, you're headed for the cliff." The demographic challenges are real and require immediate action, not hope for an unlikely turnaround. Read the podcast transcript: https://changinghighered.com/higher-ed-enrollment-crisis-strategic-solutions-expert-analysis/ #HigherEducation #HigherEdEnrollment #EnrollmentCliff
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    44 mins
  • Censorship in Higher Education: A PEN America Perspective

    Censorship in Higher Education: A PEN America Perspective
    Jan 7 2025
    Exploring Academic Censorship and Its Impact on Free Speech in Universities This episode of Changing Higher Ed® podcast features Dr. Jeremy Young of PEN America, discussing the organization's efforts to combat censorship in higher education. PEN America's "Freedom to Learn" program actively opposes state legislative attempts to restrict academic freedom and free speech on college campuses. The interview highlights concerning trends like "educational gag orders," "jawboning," and DEI bans in various states, emphasizing the threat these actions pose to intellectual discourse and institutional autonomy. Young advocates for universities to prioritize protecting free expression, even amidst political pressure, suggesting strategic approaches for presidents and boards to navigate these challenges. The discussion also covers PEN America's annual report, "America's Censored Classrooms 2024," which tracks these legislative trends. Podcast Overview PEN America's Mission and Background PEN America is a 100-year-old organization focused on defending the freedoms of writers, including academic freedom and freedom of expression.Originally stood for Poets, Essayists, and Novelists but now just "PEN" to be more inclusive of all writers.PEN International has over 140 PEN centers worldwide.PEN America's activities include awards, literary festivals, global writer protection, advocacy against book bans, free speech advocacy, and higher ed advocacy (Freedom to Learn program).PEN America is described as "center-left," maintaining relationships with organizations across the political spectrum. The Threat to Academic Freedom and Free Speech There's a growing movement to constrict the space of ideas available to students on college campuses.The argument often made is that universities lean left, and the solution is to limit existing voices, not to add more conservative perspectives.This trend manifests in attempts to ban courses, curricula, and harass administrators.The "solution to speech is more speech," and increased voices are beneficial. Book Banning and the Underlying Agenda Book banning often involves claims of obscenity but is ultimately an attempt to constrain ideas, not to protect children from inappropriate material.Analysis of banned books reveals they disproportionately feature minoritized identities, including LGBTQ, race, and sexual violence.Those who want to ban these books view them as encouraging those types of identities.PEN believes people need to see themselves reflected in books and that banning them is an attempt to cut off viewpoints for students. "America's Censored Classrooms 2024" Report An annual report tracking legislation that censors colleges and universities.Tracks "educational gag orders" that censor topics/ideas and restrictions on university autonomy (DEI offices, curriculum, accreditation standards, tenure, governance).Focuses on trends in proposed and passed legislation and predictions for the future. Jawboning as a Form of Censorship Jawboning refers to lawmakers threatening or bullying university presidents into actions they want without passing laws.This includes pressuring universities to close DEI offices or eliminate certain programs.It is a stealthy approach as there are no democratic elements, no hearings for public comment, and no laws in place to challenge.It creates a difficult situation for presidents who have limited leverage and no recourse.Congressional hearings on antisemitism have become another form of jawboning intended to intimidate university presidents and make political points.The goal often isn't to address the issue at hand but to exploit them for political gain. Florida as a Case Study in Censorship Florida is cited as "Armageddon for higher education."The state passed the "Stop Woke Act," which is a direct restriction of faculty speech.SB 266 banned DEI and placed significant restrictions on curriculum, causing numerous course eliminations.The University of North Florida removed its interfaith center due to thinking it was a DEI program.The governor replaced the board of New College of Florida with conservative figures who dramatically altered the curriculum and mission.PEN America has opened a permanent office in Florida to respond to these threats. DEI Bans in Higher Education and Their Impacts DEI bans result in the closing of cultural centers, women's centers, and multicultural centers.Staff are often reassigned or laid off in states that pass bans.Iowa has passed the most draconian ban, including a ban on developing any programming "with reference to race."It restricts universities from opining on 16 topics related to race, gender, and identity or any related topics.Universities can't even discuss bias, including the term. Extremist Attacks on Accreditors Project 2025 has a plan to weaponize accreditation, forcing accreditors to remove any reference to DEI.The government is threatening to censor ideas by forcing this change in standards.WASC considered ...
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    33 mins
  • Higher Education 2025 Predictions and 2024 Year in Review

    Higher Education 2025 Predictions and 2024 Year in Review
    Dec 31 2024
    In this 7th annual end-of-year episode of the Changing Higher Ed® podcast, Dr. Drumm McNaughton becomes the guest of our podcast as we welcome this year's guest host, Tom Netting, of TEN Government Strategies, to review McNaughton's higher ed predictions for 2024 and explore his higher education 2025 predictions. The discussion reveals how higher education fared over the polarizing election year and what to expect in the coming year. Review of 2024 Higher Ed Predictions and Outcomes Political Environment and Higher Education: Grade A The prediction about increased political involvement in higher education proved remarkably accurate in 2024, particularly given the election year dynamics. The sector experienced unprecedented political scrutiny, culminating in the October 7th congressional hearings that led to the departure of three university presidents. State-level political intervention was particularly evident in Florida, where more than a fifth of University of Florida professors failed post-tenure review under new requirements. A Foundation for Individual Rights and Expression (FIRE) survey of 6,000 faculty members across 55 colleges revealed that one in seven faculty members reported being disciplined or threatened with discipline due to their teaching, research, academic discussions, or off-campus speech. The election year amplified these tensions, with higher education becoming a focal point in political debates. 2024 Enrollment Challenges and Demographics: Grade A The prediction regarding enrollment challenges proved accurate, with institutions facing significant pressures: FAFSA rollout complications created unexpected enrollment barriersRegional institutions and private colleges were particularly affectedInstitutions under 1,000 students faced the greatest vulnerabilityDemographic realities showed concerning trends: from 3.4 million students in 2010 to 3.9 million by 2025, with a projected drop back to 3.4 million over the next 15 years. Institutional Closures and Market Consolidation: Grade A The closure rate accelerated dramatically, rising from 50 closures in 2022 to 80 in 2023. In 2024, 16 nonprofits closed, with Christian colleges representing half of these closures. The impact extended beyond campuses - Wells College's closure in Aurora affected the town's elementary school, water treatment plant, and community medical center. Academic realignment became crucial, exemplified by West Virginia University's cuts of 143 faculty positions and 28 programs and PASSHE's consolidation of six universities into two regional entities. As predicted, smaller private institutions became prime targets for acquisition: Institutions under 1,000 enrollment faced greatest pressureThose without strong endowments particularly vulnerableEarly movers in seeking partnerships fared better than those waiting until financial crisisMarket showing clear signs of mature-to-declining industry characteristics Technology and Artificial Intelligence Adoption: Grade A- The sector showed a clear divide in AI adoption approaches: Miami Dade College and Kogod Business School fully integrated AI across curriculaOther institutions maintained strict opposition to AI-generated contentFaculty concerns about AI replacing jobs emerged at institutions like University of WisconsinProgressive institutions recognized AI's potential in enrollment management, student outcomes measurement, and program assessment Student Needs and Pandemic Recovery: A- Post-pandemic adaptation revealed mixed results: Successful intense tutoring programs demonstrated three to four months of focused support could gain students a year in academic progressFaculty resistance to changing traditional teaching methods remained stronger than anticipatedGrowing sense of student and faculty disengagement emergedIncreased burden on faculty as informal student counselorsShift toward more transactional educational relationships Higher Education 2025 Predictions Legislative and Regulatory Environment Higher Education Act Reform Partial reform through budget reconciliation rather than comprehensive overhaulImplementation of short-term Pell Grants with bipartisan supportDepartment of Education reorganization likely but not dissolutionEnhanced focus on workforce development while maintaining liberal arts values Regulatory Changes Significant modifications to existing regulations under new administrationMajor changes to accreditation oversight through legislationEvolution of NACIQI's role and authorityEnhanced institutional accountability measuresChallenges to regulatory authority through cases like Loper Bright Market Evolution and Institutional Viability Enrollment and Demographics One-time enrollment increase in early 2025 due to FAFSA resolutionSubsequent decline as demographic cliff impacts materializeUncertainty in international student enrollment due to immigration policiesCritical need for innovative recruitment strategiesExpansion of direct admission ...
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    1 hr and 6 mins

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